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Read below to see the props I’m looking at on Friday’s MLB roster.
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Adrian Houser (MIL) over 14.5 losses recorded (-130)
Odds are available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publication. Up to -145 odds can be played.
You won’t catch me making noise about Adrian Houser very often, but this line seems pretty soft to me. The 29-year-old right-hander has made 18 starts this season, clearing the line in 12 of them. Even better, Houser has cleared that streak in 8 of his 9 home starts this year. He likes pitching in Milwaukee as his 3.21 ERA and .223 OBA at home are much higher than his 6.14 ERA and .285 OBA on the road. Primarily a diving pitcher, Houser generates a ton of ground balls and weak contact that helps him get out of his walk-induced jams. Control is usually the main issue with Houser as he ranks 26th in BB%.
He missed time with injury and has been slow to come back, but has seen his pitch count reach 82 in his last start. I like to see his workload come back as he has even reached 100+ pitches 5 times this season. His last two starts, including one at Colorado, have combined for 11 innings, allowing a combined 2 earned runs and generating 18 ground ball outs. The Yankees look like a tough opponent when you look at the season numbers, but that doesn’t tell the story with this team. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, the Yankees rank 20th in wOBA, 19th in SLG, 21st in OBP and have a wRC+ of 94.
Of the last 23 right-handed non-pitching starters to face the Yankees, 17 have covered that lineup. They have a lot of power in their lineup but no consistency and I like Houser to go 5 times at this point at home.
Be sure to check out our complete New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers predictions
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