After Brazil’s BRICS block, Venezuela escalates diplomatic crisis

São Paulo, Brazil — Since its bid to join BRICS was vetoed by Brazil at the trade bloc’s latest summit in Kazan, Russia last week, Venezuela’s government has launched a series of provocations against its South American neighbor, including the withdrawal of its ambassador to Brasília on Wednesday.

So far, however, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro – who attended the summit last week – has not spoken out directly against his Brazilian counterpart, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – who was unable to attend due to of a recent injury and sent his foreign minister Instead, Mauro Vieira.

“I prefer to wait for Lula, once he is well informed about the events as head of state, to say what he has to say at the right time,” Maduro said on Monday. Instead he went on the attack against Brazil’s Foreign Ministry, saying: “It has always conspired against Venezuela. It is a foreign ministry closely linked to the US State Department, since the time of the coup against João Goulart.

Before Maduro’s comments, the Venezuelan government had already released a statement signed by its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, calling Brazil’s move an “inexplicable aggression, reproducing the hatred and intolerance promoted by Western power centers.”

Venezuela’s desire to join BRICS

Originally formed in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India and China, BRICS added South Africa in 2011, creating a trading bloc that unites some of the world’s largest developing economies.

In January, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran joined the bloc, which is perceived as a counterweight to Western economies and is actively seeking to expand. Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam are considered “partner states” but not members.

Facing mounting US sanctions, Maduro has pushed hard for Venezuela’s entry into the trade bloc, even traveling to Kazan for the BRICS summit and meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin on its sidelines. He also addressed the plenary and said: “BRICS can count on Venezuela and all our revolutionary forces.”

Despite Maduro’s display of affection for the trade bloc, Brazil has effectively blocked his entry until now.
Brazil’s decision stems from concerns about Venezuela’s lack of transparency in July’s presidential election, which saw Maduro re-elected in a highly disputed result.

Brazil’s displacement from Maduro’s Venezuela

Under previous administrations, Brazil had largely avoided questioning Venezuela’s election results. (Brazil’s right-wing former president Jair Bolsonaro was a frequent critic of Maduro, however, his administration did not coincide with Venezuela’s general election.)

However, once Maduro refused to hand over the ballots to certify the election results, Brazil would join the US, the European Union and several Latin American countries in refusing to recognize Maduro’s re-election.

Paulo Velasco, a political scientist and professor of International Relations at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, sees Brazil’s demand for transparency as a critical turning point in the two nations’ relations.

It shows the internal and external pressures that influenced the change. Internationally, he sees this move as a closer alignment of Brazil with the West. At home, the professor said Lula’s government is trying to distance itself from Venezuela’s political crisis ahead of a possible re-election bid in 2026, while also signaling to Brazilian centrist voters that his administration does not condone election fraud.

“This government allows itself to criticize without theatrics, without severing ties or breaking relationships, but it allows harsher criticism,” Velasco told Brazil Reports. “It is a temptation for the political center in Brazil. Lula knows that to win in 2026, or to elect a successor, he will need the support of the center.”

The dispute over Venezuela’s recent elections has been further exacerbated by what Brazil perceives as Venezuela’s violation of the Barbados Accords.

Signed in October 2023 by Maduro and opposition leaders, the accords set out guidelines for a transparent election, with provisions for international observers, freedom of the press and fair access to candidacies. However, in March, the Venezuelan government blocked opposition candidate Corina Yoris from running, prompting Brazil’s Foreign Ministry to express concern over what it saw as a violation of the agreement. (Yoris replaced opposition leader Maria Corina Machado after the latter was disqualified by the Venezuelan government.)

“Brazil, engaging with the Barbados agreements, committed to closely monitor the Venezuelan elections and when issues arose, it could not simply look the other way as it might have done in the past,” Velasco explained.

Historical connections

The recent rift is also notable given the historical ties between Lula’s and Maduro’s leftist political movements.

“There is a historical affinity between the Workers’ Party and Chavismo, dating back to the 1990s. When [Hugo] Chávez was elected in 1998 and took office in 1999, there was a natural sympathy from the Workers’ Party and at times, what appeared to be a personal friendship between Lula and Chávez, despite their differences,” Velasco said.

During Lula’s first two terms (2003–2011) and Dilma Rousseff’s presidency (2011–2016), Brazil was a key ally for Venezuela in the region. Chavez, who died in 2013, held office from 1999 to 2013, making constitutional changes and public referendums that extended his rule to 14 years — moves that Brazil, citing respect for national sovereignty, did not oppose. never.

But relations soured in 2018 when Brazil, then led by conservative President Michel Temer, refused to accept Maduro’s re-election. The situation was further strained under Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right president who took office in 2019 and immediately recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president.

When Lula returned to power last year, hopes were raised for a renewal of the countries’ former friendship. Although Maduro lost Lula’s inauguration in January 2023, he visited Brazil in May last year, receiving full state honors. But relations soon deteriorated.

According to Velasco, the irregularities in Venezuela’s recent elections are too important to overlook even old allies like Brazil. “In the past, suspicions of fraud were just that, suspicions. It now seems more consistent that there is a deeply flawed election process,” he said.

Despite international condemnation and distancing from Brazil, Velasco believes a change in Venezuelan power remains unlikely in the near future. Maduro retains support from key allies such as Russia and China, and while Chavismo’s popularity among Venezuelans has waned, it has been bolstered by strong military support.

“Maduro feels more confident today than six years ago during his first re-election,” commented Velasco. “He has deeper support from Russia and China and has gained new allies like Turkey and Iran. This makes it less dependent on Brazil or its South American neighbors. Maduro’s power is supported not by his Chavista supporters, who have dwindled over time, but by the military.

Looking ahead to the future of Brazil-Venezuela relations, Velasco offered a sober view. “I do not believe that Brazil requires a diplomatic rupture if Venezuela does not continue with provocations. For Brazil, this stance is enough to get the message across. We don’t need to go any further.”