For the past 14 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Saturday’s MLB draft.
Andrew Heaney (LAD) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-130)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. Playable down to -135.
I’ll start with the concerns this show has. The weather for this game will provide one of the best hitting environments on offer today. With temperatures well into the 90s and the wind blowing, this show has an added element of discomfort. I’ll also point out that Kansas City has hit much better against lefties in the last month. While they have the league’s second-highest AVG against lefties in that stretch, I see signs of regression. They have the league’s second-highest BABIP during that span at .346. Their BABIP on the season against left-handers is .293, and they should get back closer to that number soon given the deductions of contact hitters in Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield. It’s not like they’re hitting the ball terribly hard either, ranking just 18th in isolated power and slugging rate over the past 30 days. I like the young core they have in Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto, but they are still young and inconsistent as a whole. Despite their strong numbers, they have yet to score 3 or more earned runs in 3 of the last 4 lefty starters they have faced.
Andrew Heaney has been exactly what the Dodgers needed after numerous injuries and off-field issues with members of their starting rotation. The 31-year-old former 9th overall pick has only gone 28 innings in his 6 starts this season, but that’s something I like about this game. Heaney has been used sporadically with 2 starts in April, 1 start in June, 1 start in July and now 2 in August entering this game. His streak hasn’t been very long with an average of just 75.33 pitches in his 3 starts since returning to the team. Los Angeles got a fantastic outing from Tony Gonsolin last night, which saved their key arms. With a smooth and fully capable unit backing up Heaney, there shouldn’t be a need to give him more than 4 or 5 turns. In his 6 starts this season, he has gone over 5 innings only once. I find it curious that his earned runs would be listed at 2.5 with reasonable juice down when the Royals first team 5 innings total is 1.5 with only even money on the bottom. I find this split intriguing, especially given how Heaney has played this season.
The lefty has posted an inconsistent but impressive 0.64 ERA this season with a consistent WHIP of 1.00. His XERA is higher than his current ERA, but it’s still an impressive 2.64. Heaney has an xBA of .187, which is .058 better than league average. His xSLG is also fantastic at .280 and he is hitting out at a 31.6% clip. His 1.32 K/IP is something he can hang his hat on, as batters are leaving the zone on his pitches 5.6% more than average, but connecting 18.4% less than average. He throws strikes to first base in 65.8% of his batters faced and when ahead in the count he uses his slider 47.5% of the time with a 52.5% slugging rate and .090 xBA in that scenario (66 pitches). Heaney has held his opponents under 2.5 earned runs in each of his 6 starts this season and I’m willing to bet he will perform well.
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