Buenos Aires, Argentina – Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s political aspirations faced a major setback in November when an Argentine appeals court upheld a conviction barring her from running for office on corruption charges.
The final decision on whether she can run as a congressional candidate in the 2025 vote will be made — and possibly delayed — by Argentina’s Supreme Court. However, Fernández de Kirchner will play a key role in selecting two new judges for the Court, thus giving her a chance to negotiate with her political opponent, President Javier Milei, and potentially maneuver her way out of conviction and prohibition to run. for office.
The 71-year-old politician has been a central figure in Argentina’s Partido Justicialista (Judicial Party) for much of the 21st century and served as president from 2007 to 2015. In 2022, the Peronist leader was found guilty of corruption in a case known as “Vialidad”, which investigated inflated budgets for the construction of public roads in Argentina’s Patagonia region. She was sentenced to six years in prison and declared ineligible to run for office indefinitely.
Weeks before the verdict, in September 2022, Fernández de Kirchner survived an assassination attempt outside her home in the wealthy Recoleta neighborhood of Buenos Aires. A young man, idle in a crowd of supporters, pulled the trigger twice on a gun pointed at her, but the gun did not fire. The former president attributes the attempt on her life to political and media persecution and claims she is also the target of “the law” by a judicial system that has failed to investigate the alleged financial backers of the attack.
“Lawfare’s denunciation strategy was misused by Fernández de Kirchner from the start and discredited by the missed opportunities of the last nine years,” said Lucas Arrimada, a professor of constitutional law at the University of Buenos Aires. Argentina reports. “Without changing the balance of forces in politics, how [Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva] AND [United States President Donald Trump] did, it is difficult to bring back a court fight,” he added.
An appeals court upheld the ruling against Fernández de Kirchner on November 13. The decision was appealed to the Supreme Court by both the prosecution, which is seeking a harsher sentence, and the former president’s defense team, which is seeking her release.
The decision of the Supreme Court is not expected soon. “It will take some time,” said Juan Carlos Maqueda, a judge on the court who will step down in December after reaching the mandatory retirement age of 75. The case is expected to reach the Supreme Court in March 2025, with the majority of analysts predicting a decision after the legislative elections in October.
Fernández de Kirchner refused to run for office in 2023 after the initial decision, arguing that she did not want to be a burden on the Justice Party. However, the former president is likely to run next year for a seat in the Cámara de Diputados, Argentina’s House of Representatives. She is expected to run in Buenos Aires province, a Peronist stronghold and the district where President Milei has historically performed worst. Recent polls show Fernández de Kirchner with a stronger public image than the libertarian leader in Buenos Aires, especially in the main metropolitan region Conurbano.
However, the Peronist leader will be able to run for office, as current law bars a candidacy only if a conviction is upheld by the Supreme Court. A proposal called “Ficha Limpia” (Clean Sheet), presented by the opposition party PRO, a current ally of Mile, seeks to ban politicians whose convictions have been upheld in appeal courts. However, the initiative has received little support in Congress, as it is opposed not only by Peronists, but also by libertarians.
Meanwhile, the ruling Libertarian Party is expecting a high-profile challenger in next year’s election and believes Fernández de Kirchner’s candidacy blocks a possible renewal of the opposition, ultimately preventing a more viable candidate from running against Miley in the presidential election. of 2027.
The Supreme Court itself will be the basis for negotiations, as Milei aims to fill two seats: one held by the retiring Maqueda and another vacant as of 2021. The government has nominated Ariel Lijo, an incumbent federal judge with connections across Argentina’s political spectrum and one with a checkered past, and Manuel García-Mansilla, a right-wing academic and former corporate lawyer. In addition, the Senate will debate the nominations of 150 federal judges, along with the Attorney General.
The battle for control of the Supreme Court
In recent months, Fernández de Kirchner has shown an inclination to negotiate with Milei. As president of the Judiciary Party, she holds sway over 33 of the 72 Senate seats, and 48 seats would be needed to confirm a Supreme Court justice.
Fernández de Kirchner may signal that senators endorse Lijo, but has indicated she wants to nominate her own candidate — who she believes should be a woman — instead of García-Mansilla to fill the second open seat on the bench.
Last week, a Peronist senator signed the final approval needed to bring Lijo’s nomination to the Senate floor. And on December 4, Fernández de Kirchner even admitted that the Constitution needed to be reformed, aligning itself with Miley’s aspirations.
Miley, however, seems unwilling to compromise. “Either it’s both of them, or nothing”, said government negotiators.
Additionally, the Libertarians are looking to get their two nominees approved before potentially adding two more seats to the Supreme Court, which could then be filled by opposition nominees. If no deal is reached by the end of 2024, Milei is said to be considering appointing Lijo and García-Mansilla “by commission,” allowing them to join the court through an executive order without Senate approval. This proposal has been opposed by all opposition parties, which have threatened to cancel the appointments when the legislative session begins in 2025.
If the negotiations succeed, a Supreme Court of five or seven judges will determine Fernández de Kirchner’s political future starting next year. However, if the Senate remains deadlocked, the remaining three justices will have to reach a unanimous decision. A poor election result for the former president could lead to a quicker decision, while a win could delay the decision indefinitely.
“Mass negotiations on judicial nominees give every actor a chance to negotiate. The time frame suggests that the situation may become abstract and a decision may never come,” said Arrimada, the law professor.
A recent example supports this idea: Domingo Cavallo, a former minister of the economy, was acquitted by the Supreme Court in a corruption case that began in the late 1990s. The case reached court in 2018, and in November, the court of rejected it, citing the right to a trial “within a reasonable time.”
