I will be honest. I’m partly to blame for the underwhelming fantasy results on Thursday nights over the last two weeks. I’m not talking about actual field production. If I had known how things would turn out, my DFS funding would have looked a lot different. Regardless, I’ve hyped every match to capture every bit of intrigue. And it all sounds good until you look Curtis Samuel release a landing.
So I’m taking a new approach this week.
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I’m just going to be cautiously optimistic about tonight’s game, as we have some big storylines to follow. DeAndre Hopkins returns for the Cardinals, and Chris Olave will return to the lineup for New Orleans. There is also a growing exercise controversy. The drama continues despite any limited action. Either way, let’s take a look at what we can expect from Week 7 TNF from a fantasy perspective.
The NFC battle with season-long implications begins Thursday night
Nathan Jahnke hits the nail on the head here:
Imagine the chaos. People would surely flock to the game for the chance to see it Taysom Hill throw, rush or catch a kick. However, with Andy Dalton (back) and Jameis Winston (back / ankle) dealing with injuries, we’ll likely see more of Hill given their offensive struggles.
The Saints are a tale of two quarterbacks. They were 31st in EPA per game with Winston, but Jameis had the third-most yards on deep throws. After Dalton took over, New Orleans moved up to 20th. But they missed explosive plays. It didn’t help that the injuries extended to the passing corps, but they developed a modicum of resilience. Tonight will be a real test, however, no matter who is in the center.
Arizona has picked up pressure over the past two weeks with a 30.8 percent pressure rate. Their pass rush has come in 29.2% of those games, with five sacks Geno Smith only in the 6th week. However, Dalton and Winston have worked on their rushing game. Nearly half of their passes came in less than 2.5 seconds (48.3% and 49.6%). With players like Olave back in the fold, their ability to create after the catch will be key to winning for the Saints.
But the Cardinals, hopefully, have an answer for New Orleans’ offense. Plus, Hopkins’ timing couldn’t be better. Marshawn LattimoreThe lack of ‘opens the encircling coverage of the saints for him and Kyler Murray to exploit. I don’t expect another one Ja’Marr Chase’s performance. However, it all rests on Murray’s shoulders (and feet).
Given all the questions surrounding the team, I’d bet you’d never guess Murray was the QB6 in fantasy. He has been relatively quiet until recently. Hopkins’ absence is certainly a factor. I will even buy offensive line disruption as a reason. Both have contributed to Arizona’s lack of big pass rushers and why the offense has been stagnant this season.
However, that hasn’t stopped Murray from trying. He is 11th in deep ball rate among his peers. The only problem is that he has trouble connecting with his receivers. Last season, Kyler’s 66.7% of his attempts were first in the league, tying him for the second most of any passer. Now, he is 25th in field goals, with fewer yards than Mitchell Trubisky.
Hopkins may not be the panacea in his debut. But the Cardinals need a layered offense with options at every level to move the ball consistently. I’ll keep an eye on Arizona’s WR-QB duo, but I’m just as curious about the Saints’ offensive approach for tonight.
Points of interest in TNF
Can another device find the “Scheme of the Saints”?
To be clear, I don’t mean speed or explosives when I say gear. Surprisingly, the Saints are league average in explosive play rate (10-plus yards rushing, 20-plus yards). Most of them likely to come from Kodra. The gear I’m talking about is a part of the offense to get him moving.
Specifically, making it pass into the opponent’s red zone.
New Orleans has the 11th-lowest red-zone play rate through six weeks. They are still scoring 23.5 points per game, but rely on unrepeatable parts along the road. Do not misunderstand me. Those shows are more than welcome. But let’s get some appearances in the mix.
Part of the Saints’ red zone issues comes down to their plays at first or second down. They are dead last on the early passing scale. Even worse, New Orleans was ineffective throwing the ball regardless of who was under center.
Winston was 26th in the EPA for receiving touchdowns through the first three weeks. Dalton ranks 25th in his few starts. It puts them in third-and-long situations on 56.4% of their third-down attempts. Their mistakes at the start of each set of downs are why they are 23rd in rushing yards.
I’ll be watching to see if a boost to their personnel gives them more juice on offense. Anything to keep the chains moving will keep them in contention to win the game.
Expectations for Hopkins’ return
Fantasy managers drafted and stashed Hopkins on their rosters in August. Soon after, they circled today’s date on the calendar: The day they could finally move him into their starting lineup. But I’m skeptical.
Metrics | Ranking (min. 20 targets) |
Target share | 32 |
Air Share | 30 |
Yards per Run Run | 42 |
Intentions for routing the route | the 54th |
The target part of the Red Zone | 13 |
Hopkins was healthy and played in 80.0% or more of the snaps through Week 7 last season. And yet, his measures of opportunity are not very “Hopkins-ian”. He never surpassed double-digit targets in a game. His single-match total never crossed the century mark. The only saving grace was we knew what Murray would look like in scoring position. Let’s hope a similar target percentage comes in the mid-20s this season.
Kliff Kingsbury said they want to use Hopkins differently after Brown’s injury. Again, I have my doubts. Hopkins ran just 16.2% of his routes from the slot. He caught just three screen passes. Kingsbury’s playcalling is already under scrutiny. Perhaps, the fire under his seat is what he needs to spark some creativity.
I’ll be watching not just for playing time, but how Arizona positions Hopkins in his return. If his role looks similar to last season, his return to the field could also be the time to trade him away.
But don’t bench these guys
I can understand any reluctance to start any other player tonight. A game total of 44.5 points doesn’t inspire much confidence, and I have more questions about each offense than answers. But the teams are bye features some of the best fantasy the players. So if you need a week’s worth of filler, I’ve got a few guys to start tonight.
Marquez Callaway
I have anecdotal and analytical data points for recommendation Marquez Callaway. I’ll start with the numbers.
Callaway has led the team in routes and targets since Week 4. Without their leading receivers, he has been their de facto WR1 with a 26.9% aerial yardage percentage. But Callaway’s “last man standing” status isn’t the only reason to start him on a short week. Arizona’s defense has been running targets in his direction the past two weeks. In their respective competitions, Jalen Hurts AND Geno Smith scored a pass completion up the middle of the field. Their aDOTs fell by an average of 2.6 yards.
Incidentally, Callaway’s 12.5% slot rate is the lowest among active receivers. And he’s taken 47.1% of his short field goals. So quantitatively, his workload makes him a solid starter in PPR leagues.
There is also a narrative that I wouldn’t mind leaning towards TNF.
Callaway’s use is out of necessity, but the team may continue to display it for commercial purposes. In an ideal scenario, the team already has its trio and Callaway will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season. The extra time on the pitch doesn’t guarantee him goals, but there is some motivation from the team for him to perform well for now.
Rondale Moore
I’m all for swinging for the fences and getting started Robbie Anderson. While in Carolina, Anderson saw 47.6% of his targets in the intermediate and deep parts of the field. He would do some damage against the Saints, who have allowed 88 rushing yards on 15-plus yards over the past three weeks. However, he will is likely to be limitedand his style doesn’t match his new quarterback’s.
Murray has thrown down or behind the line of scrimmage on 63.9% of his attempts. That’s why Arizona has played the seventh most third downs. But efficient play volume doesn’t matter to Rondale Moore.
Moore gets the first crack at the full-time role without Marquise Brown. Per PFF, the sophomore played in 94.1% of the team’s two-receiver sets. Plus, all but six of his targets have come from inside this season.
The Bengals racked up 89 yards against the Saints’ slot coverage on Sunday. Moore doesn’t have the same size as Cincinnati’s trio, but the Arizona receiver is sixth in YAC for receptions when targeted inside. Regardless, Moore is an ideal PPR flex option for managers coming off a rough week.
