For the past 13 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the backer(s) I’m looking at in Saturday’s MLB draft.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) 5+ strikeouts/Phillies ML (-130)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication.
Zack Wheeler is one of my favorite pitchers to root for, especially when he’s at home. The 32-year-old right-hander is in the midst of another elite year in a Phillies uniform. Wheeler has a 2.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP overall this season. When at home, those numbers drop to a 1.62 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. His 85 percent XERA is in line with last season when he finished second in Cy Young voting. Wheeler has an elite 85th BB%. He doesn’t get hit hard often with an average exit velocity of 91 percent, hard hitting percentage of 82 percent and barrel percentage of 75 percent.
The Phillies ace is a dominant hitting force with his 74th K%. He had a 91st percentile strikeout rate and a 63rd percentile K/IP of 1.09. Wheeler pounds the zone to advance in numbers with a 68.1% first-down strike rate. He’s averaging 98.6 pitches per start over his last 11 games and going deep into games with 6 or more innings of work in 78% of his starts dating back to last season. In 42 of his 49 starts over the past two years Wheeler has recorded 5 or more hits, including 25 of his 27 home runs. The Cubs have a 23.5% strikeout rate against right-handed batters over the past 30 days, and 17 of the last 25 right-handed starters they’ve faced have recorded 5 or more K. Chicago has a 5- lowest rushing touchdowns and 4th highest total whiffs this season.
The Cubs are just 2-9 when Marcus Stroman starts this season. He does a good job limiting walks and is better on the road than at Wrigley. Even with that in mind, there are still some areas of his game that I find worth attacking. His 36th xERA percentage, 30th xSLG percentage, 21st xBA percentage are concerning going forward. He ranks in the 4th percentile in average exit velocity and 5th percentile in slugging rate. He does a solid job of keeping the ball on the ground, but his barrel rate is still league average. With the wind blowing and 95-degree temperatures in Philadelphia, there is a high expectation for home runs and overall hitting. The Phillies rank 6th best in ISO and 7th best in SLG against righties over the last 30 days.
Stroman also doesn’t go deep into games. He has gone past the 5th inning just three times all year and has failed to make it past the fifth in each of his last 3 starts. Another short walk will hand the game to a Cubs bullpen who has the 5th highest WHIP since June 1st. The Phillies pen has turned their season around. Over the last 30 days they sit 3rd in WHIP and 6th in xFIP.
Kyle Wright (ATL) to record a win: yes (+120)
Kyle Wright (ATL) 5+ strikeouts/Braves ML (-135)
0.5 U each. In total, risking 1.18U to gain 1.1U. Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication.
I’ll start by saying that I wrote a game preview for this game this morning that you can find here /mlb/predictions/los-angeles-angels-vs-atlanta-braves-predictions/. Now let’s dive deeper.
Los Angeles is just 12-37 in its last 49 contests, including 6-34 when Ohtani doesn’t pitch. The Angels are 7-29 when not favored and 28-39 against right-handed starters. Atlanta on the other hand is 23-9 against lefty starters, 49-23 as a favorite, 13-5 when Kyle Wright gets the ball and 34-11 in their last 45 games overall. To say these teams are going in opposite directions would be an understatement.
Speaking of Kyle Wright, I really like this spot for him today. The Angels have the lowest strikeout rate in the area and the 4th lowest strikeout rate this season. Overall, their whiff rate ranks 3rd worst in baseball. In the last 30 days against right-handed hitters, the Angels rank dead last in K%, AVG, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, are 29th in OBP and 28th in ISO. 20 of the last 25 right-handed starters to face the Angels have recorded 5 or more hits with 18 of them recording 6 or more. Wright has recorded 5 or more strikeouts in 12 of 18 starts, including 8 of 11 at home. His 79th percentile called strikeout rate plus slugging, 63rd percentile slugging percentage, and 65th percentile strikeout swing should be able to add him to the list. He also limits power well with his barrel rate in the 70th percentile.
Wright generally goes deep into games recording at least 5 IP in 16 of 18 starts. That includes 6 or more IP in 13 of those starts and 8 of the last 10. He is averaging 91 pitches per start this season. Atlanta has the best offense in every major stat I measure, and they didn’t have to use their high-leverage arms last night. Sandoval for the Angels doesn’t tend to go very deep in the game, and the Braves have a ton of power production against lefties this season despite going cold in the last 30 days.
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