For the past 14 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Saturday’s MLB draft.
Check out our MLB picks where we offer side and total bets on EVERY game
Framber Valdez (HOU) to record a win: yes (-110)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. Playable down to -120.
Framber Valdez is one of my favorite pitchers in the MLB. The Astros lefty has compiled a 10-4 record with a 2.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season. His advanced stats back up that success as the 28-year-old has a 74th percentile xERA. His 37 percent walk rate is always the main concern for him, but he does an outstanding job of getting out of jams. Valdez has a ground ball rate that is 23.6% higher than the league average thanks to his sinker, changeup, and curveball each having vertical movement in the 3.3-6.9 inch range above average. Framber doesn’t get hit often with his 63rd percentile xBA, and when he does it’s not hard. He ranks in the 89th percentile in both xSLG and barrel rate, and as a result, has allowed just 7 home runs in 135 IP this year.
When hitters chase pitches out of the zone against Valdez, they connect 8.2% less than average. The Rangers have the lowest chase contact rate in the league. Overall, they have the league’s second-highest strikeout rate, which has resulted in a 28.5% K% against lefties over the last 30 days. In that same time period against left-handed pitching, Texas ranks 23rd in AVG, 18th in SLG, 20th in wOBA and has a wRC+ of just 94. The last 4 left-handed starters to facing Texas were Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Marco Gonzales and Cole Irvin. All are solid spinners for their clubs, but none are as good as the Framber. These 4 pitchers have combined for 26.2 IP with a 0.79 WHIP, 31 hits and 6 earned runs allowed.
Valdez is better on the road statistically this season, but the sample size has been smaller with 36.1 fewer IP at home. Last year, his road/home divide was much closer. Even with the worst home splits, he has still recorded 7 consecutive quality home starts. Valdez is a quality starting machine overall and has had success against this lineup already this year. In 13 IP against the Rangers this season, Valdez has allowed 1 earned run with 12 Ks and a 1.08 WHIP. He’s also been great on the day with a .192 OBA and 2.84 ERA.
The Astros are crushing lefty pitching with a 118 wRC+ over the last 30 days. During this span, they rank 3rd in ISO, 6th in SLG and have K%. They will see rookie Cole Ragans for his second career start today. Ragans pitched well with a scoreless outing in 5 IP against the White Sox, but Chicago hasn’t really been hitting lefties lately.
The Astros’ team total through the first 5 innings is 2.5 with -130 liquid at the end. Rangers team first 5 times total is 1.5 with -150 liquid under. I expect Valdez to walk away from the game with the lead and he has the benefit of a more consistent chicken behind him. Over the past 30 days, the Rangers bullpen ranks 18th in xFIP and 25th in WHIP while Houston is 10th in both.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros
Miami Marlins Team Total Under 3.5 (-118)
Odds available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publication. Playable down to -130.
The Miami Marlins are a team I’m looking to pick when the opportunity arises. Their offense is absolutely anemic after injuries to key members of their lineup. Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Aguilar, Brian Anderson, Jacob Stallings, Jon Berti, Jorge Soler, Jesus Sanchez, Avisail Garcia and Bryan De La Cruz are all out of today’s lineup. This kind of reduction in talent has been evident on the field as Miami has failed to produce 4 or more runs in 10 straight games. When facing right-handed starters, they have failed to score 4 or more runs in 7 straight games and 22 of their last 25 games.
Over the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, Miami ranks 27th in AVG, 29th in OPS, 29th in ISO, 29th in wOBA and has a wRC+ of 71. Today no should be easier, since they are catching Kyle Gibson in good form. Gibson has made 14 combined tackles in his last 2 starts against Washington and Atlanta. In those 14 innings Gibson has a 0.64 WHIP and 3 runs allowed. His 22 ground ball outings during those games is in line with his ground ball rate which is 2.8% higher than average. His 67th percentile slugging percentage, 62nd percentile slugging percentage, and 66th percentile BB% are a trifecta that I adore as he is not allowing base runners and it is being hit hard. He draws a good amount of weak contact and keeps batters off balance with his 6 pitch arsenal.
Gibson is allowing just a .227 OBA at home this season and has been held to under 4 runs in each of his last 5 starts. Behind Gibson is a Phillies bullpen that ranks 6th in xFIP over the past 30 days as a unit. They will also have everyone available outside of Seranthony Dominguez. I had to squeeze his name into this post.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks. Check out the latest Betting Prop MLB AND MLB Parlays as well as ours Best MLB Bets by the experts.
