For the past 14 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Saturday’s MLB draft.
Catch our MLB picks for ALL 17 games today
Phillies First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-120)
Odds available on the DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication are playable as low as -130.
Also good with the Phillies complete game team total.
Patrick Corbin is someone worth targeting in most scenarios, but today looks like a perfect storm. The Nationals’ highly paid left-hander is in the midst of a career-worst season. Corbin has posted a 6.57 ERA this season that is supported by a 3rd percentile xERA ranking. He allows a ton of base hits with 156 hits allowed in 109.2 IP. His XBA only sits in the 3rd percentile with a 4th percentile xSLG. The lefty is not only hit often, but hit very hard. Corbin ranks just 9th percentile in average exit velocity, 10th percentile in slugging rate, and 15th percentile in slugging percentage. His 1.77 WHIP overall jumps to 2.00 when on the road. He also has a road ERA of 8.43 with an OBA of .367 in 47 IP.
Corbin has allowed 3 or more runs in each of his last 5 starts. In those starts, he’s gone 5 IP just once, tallying a combined 21 IP. In those 21 innings, Corbin has posted a 2.19 WHIP with 25 runs allowed and 5 home runs. Corbin has allowed 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings in 12 of his last 15 starts. That includes a game against these Phillies where Corbin surrendered 9 runs (only 2 earned) on 8 hits in 3.1 IP. Today, Corbin has his strikeout line set at 15.5 with heavy juice all the way down, and his earned runs at 3.5. Getting a reasonable price for a 2.5 number for the Phillies that includes no earned runs is something I’m happy about.
Philadelphia hasn’t hit the ball as well as their lefties have on the season over the past 30 days, but it’s still a potent offense. The lineup is filled with hard hitting bats and guys who are ready to go. The hitting conditions today in Philadelphia are also pristine. Citizens Bank Park is expected to see the highest increase in home run production and total scoring output of any park today. Winds are expected to gust in excess of 10 MPH and temperatures should reach 90 degrees at first.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies
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