For the past 15 months, I’ve been sharing my sports betting picks and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the picks I’m looking at in Monday’s MLB draft.
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Triston McKenzie (CLE) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-130)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. Up to -140 odds can be played.
The Cleveland Guardians have done a fantastic job developing the young talent of Triston McKenzie. The 25-year-old righty who they selected in the 2015 MLB draft out of high school has shown flashes of brilliance this season, especially in the last 2 months. In July and August, McKenzie made 11 starts that included a combined 72.1 IP. In those 72.1 IP, he allowed just a 0.170 OBA, 2.24 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 6 home runs with a 28.2% K%. He allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 8 of those 11 starts. On the season, McKenzie has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 17 of his 25 appearances (24 starts, 1 relief appearance). That includes a start against Kansas City in July, when McKenzie threw 6 scoreless innings with Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield still in the Royals lineup.
Kansas City has players that I see potential in, but almost their entire lineup is young. With that youth comes inconsistency, and the Royals have had a lot of low-scoring games lately. Of the last 19 right-handed starters to face Kansas City, 14 of them have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs. Pitchers who allowed 3 or more were the injured Michael Kopech who didn’t have to pitch, Lucas Giolito and his 6.61 home ERA, Yu Darvish, Drew Hutchison and the “struggling” Michael Pineda. Even their powerful veteran Salvador Perez struggles against right-handed hitters (.222 AVG, .680 OPS) and is 3-for-15 against McKenzie with 5 lifetime strikeouts. Kansas City will also likely still be without rookie Vinnie Pasquantino, who began a rehab stint Saturday for his injured shoulder.
McKenzie ranks 64th in xBA and 67th in BB%. When backing up his winning streak, the concern is of course with his troubling barrel rate, which currently sits in the 9th percentile. Of his 22 home runs allowed this season, 16 of them have come on the road. That said, tonight’s game will be in Kansas City, the second deepest outfield of any MLB park. Wind is massive when it gets in the way of games at Kauffman Stadium, but with the wind blowing as expected today, the result is usually a drastic reduction in home production. BallparkPal.com is calling for a 20% drop in home sales today, by far the sharpest drop on today’s list.
Active Royals bats also have just 2 home runs in 70 at-bats against McKenzie. The other concern when backing this prop is its chain. McKenzie typically throws 90-100 pitches and will likely see a similar run today. That said, he only allows a .182 OBA and .555 OPS the third time through the order.
I love this prop and the price we are getting for it.
Be sure to check out our full Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals predictions
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