For the past 14 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Thursday’s MLB draft.
Triston McKenzie (CLE) Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. Up to -120 odds can be played.
Triston McKenzie is finally starting to put together performances in which he flashes his extreme potential. The 25-year-old right-hander is in fine form having just shut down the White Sox, Astros and Blue Jays offense in his last 3 starts. Those 3 starts spanned 21.2 IP with just 16 baserunners and 4 earned runs allowed. McKenzie has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 16 of his 23 starts this season, including 7 of his last 9.
The main concern with this bet is that McKenzie has an above-average fly rate, and Seattle has the highest fly rate in the league over the last 30 days against righties. That said, the Mariners’ HR/FB ratio sits just about in the middle of the pack, and they haven’t fared very well overall. In the last month, Seattle ranks 23rd in hard contact, wOBA, OPS, 22nd in SLG and 27th in AVG against right-handed pitching. Sixteen of the last 24 right-handed starters to face Seattle have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs. That includes 6 of the last 8 and back-to-back starts by Erick Fedde and Anibal Sanchez.
McKenzie ranks 71st in BB%, 60th in xBA and 67th in K%. He’ll have a career-high 14 strikeouts against a White Sox lineup that’s tough to hit. McKenzie does a great job moving forward in numbers; in that situation he has xBAs of .234, .122 and .228 on his 3 pitches. In 141.2 IP this season McKenzie has allowed just 101 hits and 35 walks. This has led to a 0.96 WHIP, which ranks 6th best in all of MLB. He has been outstanding during his 74.1 IP on the day. In those innings, McKenzie has allowed a .161 OBA and 1.94 ERA. He has struggled to allow more home runs on the road this season and that is the concern today. However, in 27 PA against active Mariners at bats, McKenzie has allowed just 5 hits. At the price on offer, I like to support him in this country.
Be sure to check out our Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners predictions
Kevin Gausman (TOR) 5+ strikeouts/Blue Jays ML (-115)
Odds available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publication. Playable down to -120.
The Blue Jays are now 12-3 against the Red Sox this season. That includes all 4 times Kevin Gausman has taken the mound for Toronto. Gausman has been worth every penny to the Blue Jays in the offseason and I love this spot for him tonight.
Gausman ranks in the 80th percentile in strikeout rate this year with a 77th percentile slugging percentage. His 99 percent strike rate and 96 percent BB% are an impressive combination. In the last series between these two teams, the Jays dominated 28-5 in the game decided by Gausman. He has recorded 10, 10, 9 and 8 hits this season against the Red Sox. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, Boston ranks 19th in wOBA, 21st in ISO, 17th in OPS and 25th in BB%. Five of the last 6 right-handed starters have cleared that number against Boston, including Jose Berrios with 6 last night. On the road this season Gausman has a 1.65 ERA and .222 OBA. He has allowed just 2 home runs and 11 walks in his 71 IP on the road.
Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston and is coming off a game against Baltimore in which he allowed 3 home runs and 11 hits on his way to 9 earned runs. He ranks in the 35th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, xERA, average exit velocity and barrel rate. Crawford has performed better at Fenway, but allowed 3 earned runs against Toronto at home earlier this season in a 4-1 loss. Three of his four pitches have an xBA of over .250 and he doesn’t go very deep in games.
When the starters are out, I favor the Toronto bullpen. The Jays have the deepest and most reliable unit that has played well since the All-Star break. Look for Toronto to end the series with a convincing win.
Be sure to check out our Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox predictions
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