For the past 14 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at on Friday’s MLB roster.
Joe Ryan (MIN) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. Can be played down to -130.
I love rooting for Joe Ryan at home, and I love rooting for the Giants against right-handed hitters. Today we can do both in one game. Ryan is a very talented rookie who has supplied the Twins with much-needed rotation production this season. The 26-year-old righty has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 20 starts. That includes 7 of the last 9 starts and 8 of 11 at home. At home this year Ryan has allowed a .186 OBA and 2.95 ERA in 61 IP.
Ryan ranks 60th percentile in xERA, 60th percentile in BB%, and 72nd percentile in xBA. He has a tendency to get tripped up, which isn’t ideal, but his hard-hit rate ranks in the 70th percentile. He gets out of jams often as his strikeout rate ranks in the 55th percentile, but his play rate is more than double the league average at 14.3%. Ryan leads the field on first downs 65.1% of the time. When he goes into the numbers, his 4-seam fastball is used 52.9% of the time with a .164 xBA and .292 xSLG. He also uses his slider 25.2% of the time in that scenario with an xBA of .211 and xSLG of .273. He draws a lot of weak contact and that should play well against a Giants team with the 5th softest contact against right-handed hitters in the last 30 days. The Twins bullpen should also have everyone available as only Trevor Megill is in danger of playing his third game in 4 days, so Ryan shouldn’t be stretched too far in terms of pitch count.
Over those last 30 days against right-handed pitching, the Giants rank 23rd in wOBA, 24th in OPS and 28th in AVG. The last right-handed hitter they faced was a 5-strikeout outing by Mike Mayers. Each of the last 4 right-handed starters have held the Giants under 3 earned runs, as have 17 of the last 23 they’ve faced. Target Field is an overall pitcher friendly park and with the wind blowing today I love getting this award.
Chad Kuhl (COL) 5+ hits allowed/Mets ML (-115)
Odds are available at DraftKings and BetMGM Sportsbooks at time of publication. Can be played down to -130.
Chad Kuhl started the season very well for his new team in Colorado, but that success has quickly disappeared. Kuhl now has a 5.16 ERA and a 13th percentile xERA to back it up. He ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, slugging rate and K%. His walk rate is in the 22nd percentile with a 24th percentile slugging rate. Kuhl uses his sink the most with a usage of 42.1%. Thing is, his sink is terrible with a .350 xBA and .592 xSLG against that pitch.
One of the main areas of concern for Kuhl is his inability to throw pitches for strikes consistently. He has a below-average first-pitch strikeout rate and a below-average zone strikeout rate, and he gets into obvious fastball situations far too often. Kuhl struggles against hitters from both sides of the plate. Against left-handed batters Kuhl has allowed a .271 OBA and .860 OPS, while allowing a .276 OBA and .790 OPS to right-handed batters. Something that stood out to me is that Kuhl is not a traditional Rockies pitcher, as he actually does better at Coors Field. Tonight’s game will be played at Citi Field, and Kuhl has a 6.08 ERA and .288 OBA on the road this season. He has allowed 5 or more hits in 14 of his last 15 starts, including 6 straight, and 6 or more hits in 11 of those 15 starts.
The New York Mets have overwhelmed right-handed pitching over the past 30 days, as they rank in the top 5 in wOBA, OPS and ISO. The Mets have recorded 5 or more hits in 6 of their last 7 and 19 of their last 24 right-handed starters. Chris Bassitt will take the mound for the Mets, and he has been outstanding as of late. In his last 4 starts spanning 26 IP, Bassitt has allowed just 2 earned runs and zero home runs. When at home this season he has a 2.55 ERA and .218 OBA. On the road against righties in the last month the Rockies rank 20th in wOBA, 21st in ISO and 19th in OPS. The Mets bullpen is the most rested and talented unit and I trust them to close things out late in the game.
Tyler Anderson (LAD) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of tweet. Can be played with posted odds. If the odds change, I’m fine with Anderson recording a win at -115.
Tyler Anderson has been a steady hand for the Dodgers this season. In a year that has seen injuries to many of their starting pitchers, Anderson has stepped up. The 32-year-old lefty has a 13-2 record with a 2.73 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He ranks 78th percentile in xERA, 68th percentile in xBA, 67th percentile in xSLG. Anderson limits walks to the 88th percentile in BB% and doesn’t allow much power, ranking 83rd percentile in barrel rate, 95th percentile in slugging rate, and 97th percentile in average velocity of exit.
Miami is arguably the league’s worst offense against left-handed hitters. Over the last 60 days they rank 30th in wOBA, 28th in ISO, 30th in OPS, 30th in SLG and have a wRC+ of 50 against lefties. Of the South’s last 20 games to face Miami, 18 of them have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs, with 12 allowing 1 or 0. That includes their last time facing a lefty when Cole Irvin threw 7 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts. Anderson allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in 7 IP in his last start against this Miami team.
Anderson has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 16/23 starts this season. While he’s been much better at home, LoanDepot Park is a pitcher-friendly park, and this Miami lineup doesn’t scare me. He’s allowed just 4 home runs in his last 99.2 IP and doesn’t get hit often, allowing 6 or more hits in just 7 of 23 starts this year. Behind him is a quiet flush, as the Dodgers had the day off yesterday. Despite a recent 7 IP start against Miami, his support is very low at 18.5. I believe this is due to the fresh pulp behind him, and they shouldn’t need to stretch him in this game.
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