For the past 15 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Saturday’s MLB draft.
New York Mets First 5 Times Total Over 2.5 (-115)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. Up to -125 odds can be played.
Patrick Corbin’s starts have been something to look forward to every 5 days. The highly paid lefty has created a nightmare of a season. Corbin has posted a 5-17 record with a 5.86 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. His advanced stats are a concern across the board, as he ranks in the 5th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, slugging rate and barrel rate. When on the road, Corbin has allowed an 8.83 ERA, .379 OBA and 2.11 WHIP in 53 IP. Overnight the southpaw has allowed a 7.73 ERA, .345 OBA and 1.96 WHIP in 73.1 IP. Against left-handed bats he allows a .328 OBA and .877 OPS, while he allows a .324 OBA and .911 OPS to righties.
Corbin is coming off back-to-back starts allowing just 2 runs, but that’s a noticeable change in his game log over the course of the season. In his first 5 innings of road starts this season, Corbin has allowed 2, 6, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 7, 5, 5, 2 and 6 runs. His last two starts against the Mets have resulted in 4 runs on 7 hits and 7 runs on 12 hits. New York has been quiet against left-handed pitching in general over the last 30 days, but that hasn’t been the case at home. with their wRC+ still at 110. Their lineup has the perfect balance of power and the ability to hit for contact and Corbin should deal with one hit after another. Pete Alonso is 13 for 34 against Corbin with 7 extra-base hits and 9 walks. Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte and Mark Canha have also had success against Corbin.
The lefty has an xBA of .309 or higher in 3 of his 4 pitches with the remaining pitch allowing a .250 xBA. He has allowed at least 1 home run in 5 straight starts and 12 of his last 14 starts overall. Look for the Mets to push 3 runs across the plate in the first 5 innings of this ballgame.
Noah Syndergaard (PHI) over 3.5 goals (-115)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. Up to -130 odds can be played.
Noah Syndergaard is clearly not what he once was. The now 30-year-old righty has seen his K% drop from the 29.3% he put up in 2016 as a member of the Mets. While there is no doubt that his skills have diminished due to injuries and aging, Syndergaard is still a more than capable MLB starter and I see this line being very cheap. When he sees 45 pitches or more this season, Syndergaard is 12-6 over this 3.5 line. That includes 4 or more strikeouts in 8 of his last 11 starts and 5 or more strikeouts in 7 of those appearances.
Based on his season average of pitches per strikeout, we’d need a shade under 82 pitches in an average game. Syndergaard has thrown 87 pitches as a member of the Phillies. This is also an above average matchup for Syndergaard in my eyes as this Giants offense is one that I like to pick. Yesterday’s game against Kyle Gibson was the first time this Giants offense has scored more than 3 earned runs by a right-handed starter in their last 13 attempts. They have scored 3 or fewer earned runs in 20 of their last 25 games against a righty starter overall. Since August 15th, San Francisco has the third-highest 25.6% strikeout rate against righties behind only the Pirates and Angels. During that span they rank 25th in wOBA, 25th in OPS, 20th in ISO and have a wRC+ of just 75.
Of the last 14 right-handed starters to face the Giants, 9 have topped that line including Matt Manning with 8, Zac Gallen with 12 and Joe Musgrove with 11. Ryan Feltner, Zach Thompson and Zach Davies also cleared this streak with 5 or more hits each. Syndergaard has an above average chase rate and the Giants offense has the 7th lowest chase contact rate this season. He doesn’t walk much or get hit hard, and I don’t expect much traffic on the basepaths given San Francisco’s offensive struggles. While his road ERA is higher than at home, Oracle Park is a fantastic park for pitchers and Syndergaard sees his K/IP increase to 0.87 from 0.68 at home. The Phillies bullpen doesn’t need a complete game or anything, but after getting 5 innings from Gibson yesterday, 6 innings should be in order for Thor. I think that’s a cheap price for a pitcher who has found different ways to succeed after injuries.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Betting AND MLB Parlays as well as ours Best MLB Bets by the experts.
