We’re only two weeks into the NHL season, and in many jurisdictions in the United States and Canada, this is the first full NHL season in which bettors can place legal hockey bets. And with more markets than ever available to bettors, the popularity of prop bets on NHL games is growing.
We had a conversation with @WallaBets (also known as Steven Joffe) by props. cash — an education tool and resource that helps sports bettors make better props using relevant analytics — to pick his brain for some tips to consider before placing NHL props.
Answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Sports Handle: It’s very early in the NHL season, but have you noticed any trends yet that might be helpful for bettors?
Joffe: I’ve seen players who have had more shots on goal in the preseason. Some of them are carrying that volume into the regular season. And some guys that I may have trusted in the past, when I look at their preseason numbers, they were a little lower than usual. So I’m waiting for it just to see. However, you have to be careful when looking at preseason numbers, but it can be useful to have an early advantage in the regular season.
Do you think revenge games are profitable when it comes to props? For example, do you think a player is more likely to fill the stats when playing against his former team after a trade, or after signing with a new team and playing for the first time with his former team?
I think you have to consider a lot of context. If we look at Nazem Kadri, he just won the Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche and now plays for Calgary. It was such an emotional time and he seemed to be leaving Colorado on good terms. I think it’s different when there’s an ugly split between a team and a player and that player is determined to have a big game against his former team. You can benefit from this.
Revenge 🍎 https://t.co/MpYAuVbz05 pic.twitter.com/ziRXUZHyVZ
— Walla (@WallaBets) October 22, 2022
How strongly do you factor advanced analytics into your handicapping process for props?
One of the best things to look at is expected goals. You can look at the box score and notice that a certain player has only scored a few goals in some matches. But when you look at this advanced statistic, you can find that many of their shots most of the time would have been goals and that is a really big factor. You can see a juicy betting line for that player and then you know the trends indicate that some goals could be coming soon. You can really dig much deeper than the box score says.
In your opinion, which sportsbooks are the best to place hockey props with?
Bet365 is truly unique. DraftKings, FanDuel and other sportsbooks do not allow you to bet the same pregame points on players on the same team, and bet365 will allow you to do so. It’s almost like a cheat code for hockey because most goals scored in the NHL are not unassisted goals. So you can bet on all three guys on a high or hot line who are passing the ball to each other. For example, you can bet David Pasrnak and Patrice Bergeron on the Boston Bruins to each score points, and you can take +200 instead of betting -200 on them scoring individually. FanDuel is also really great. They offer alternate shooting for goals. So you can set your line based on your data. There may be more juice, but those strike rates skyrocket when you can choose the over/under line.
What about goalie props? How should punters approach them?
I don’t bet a lot of goalie props, but I know a few people who do. I bet on a lot of shots on goal, but this logic can also be applied to the goalkeeper’s props. If a team gives up a ton of shots and the opposing team going in has taken a lot of shots, it might be worth betting that the goaltender will make a lot of saves. However, the danger here is that if the goaltender can’t stop the rush of shots, the team may pull him before you can cash in your save ticket.
What advice would you give to new NHL bettors?
When I first started, I bet on goal kicks. It’s very basic. You can simply research the shots allowed and stick to the best teams before you start researching different angles. Try to keep it simple. It may sound silly, but also educate yourself about the rules. I’ve noticed a lot of people on Twitter don’t understand what counts as a goal kick and complain. Make sure you understand what you are betting on. Sometimes, stats will change during or after the game. Shots or points may be removed or added by league statisticians after a review. And of course, props.cash is a great tool to help you get started with your handicapping process and organize your data.
Blue vs Oilers Game Report. Some trends to keep an eye on in this match. Good luck guys, hope this helps!#NHLTwitter #GamblingTwitter pic.twitter.com/GQn7cP40pY
— Walla (@WallaBets) October 22, 2022
Many operators I have spoken to have said that they take a number of actions in prop bets surrounding star players. Should you bet on these star players? Or should they look for value with lesser-known players?
Many times you can find some good value with second line players. Last year, the Blues’ second line was absolutely shut down for 10 straight games. The points, goals, assists, betting lines were always better on the second line than the team’s first line. Rob Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko and Pavel Buchnevich went wild. Rob Thomas had an assist in nine or 10 straight games and his price was +110 every game. You can find those kinds of lines. You can catch the books by surprise when a certain trainer changes his lines as well. When a second-line center jumps to the first line, or is promoted to the main power play unit, a stat boost is likely, and sometimes the books are slow to react.
Is there an advantage when a certain team plays on the second night of a doubleheader when it comes to props?
I definitely pay attention to this situation when watching shots on goal. There are trends there. Some guys just might not get the shot on the second night of a doubleheader, while others usually stay untouched. You can see the opposing team come in and really focus on getting pucks in the net. A team will come into the game with a certain mindset and then adjust as the game goes on.
