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Read below to see the backer(s) I’m looking at in Monday’s MLB draft.
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Ranger Suarez (PHI) 4+ hits allowed/Braves ML (-130)
Odds are available at DraftKings and BetMGM Sportsbooks at time of publication. It can be played on that number.
I really like this spot today for the Atlanta Braves, but I’m not a fan of the ML price of about -190. A major reason I like Atlanta is that I believe they will have success against Phillies starter Ranger Suarez. By adding Ranger to allow 4 or more hits, something he has done in all 16 starts, we can lower the juice to a more palatable price.
Ranger Suarez has a 5.15 ERA at home this season with a .282 OBA and a 1.64 WHIP. His 41st xERA percentage and 31st xBA percentage leave a lot to be desired. Suarez also has trouble allowing walks, ranking in the 32nd percentile. He has a below-average first-pitch strikeout rate, and that’s a concern against the potent Braves lineup.
Atlanta is hitting .278 over the last 30 days against left-handed pitching. During that span they rank 5th in OBP, 12th in OPS, 10th in wOBA and have a wRC+ of 117. On the season they are 24-10 when facing a left-handed starter . Adam Duvall is now out with a wrist injury, but this Braves lineup is deep and more than capable of filling his spot. 19 of the last 25 LHPs to face Atlanta have allowed 4 or more hits. Saurez has allowed 6 hits in both games against Atlanta this season.
Max Fried is on the mound for the Braves and is one of my favorite pitchers in the sport. His 2.64 ERA has an 85th percentile xERA to back it up. He has the 93rd hitter percentages in terms of barrel rate and walk rate. Fried’s 92nd percent strikeout rate is elite, as are his ground ball and weak contact rates. Each of his pitches has a negative run value and he has allowed less than 3 runs in 14/19 starts. His road OBA falls below the Mendoza line and his ERA is better on the road than at home.
The bullpens have each been in the top 10 over the last 30 days, but Atlanta can expect a longer outing from their starter, and I like them to have a lead when Fried leaves, raising their high-leverage arms. . The Braves are 18-8 this season as road favorites while the Phillies are just 3-6 as home underdogs. I like Atlanta to improve to 15-5 behind Max Fried.
Be sure to check out our full Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies game preview
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