The 2024 US presidential election revealed emerging voting patterns among Brazilian-Americans, a trend that carries implications for Brazil’s 2026 election. While Kamala Harris maintained a lead among this demographic, Donald Trump made significant gains, marked a gradual shift in political allegiance.
A poll by the Ideia Institute showed that 60% of Brazilian-Americans support Harris, with 35% favoring Trump. This represents a significant increase in Trump’s support since 2016, nearly doubling his share of this voting bloc. The trend reflects a broader pattern of conservative tendencies that are growing among some immigrant communities over time.
Several factors contribute to this change. Some Brazilian-Americans, especially those with legal status, have become open to Trump’s stance on illegal immigration. Economic concerns and social issues also play a role in shaping the preferences of these voters. Importantly, Brazilian-American voters tend to prioritize US domestic issues over Brazil-US relations when casting their ballots.
This political evolution among Brazilian-Americans serves as a cautionary tale for Brazil’s President Lula as he considers his political future. The growing conservatism among some Brazilian immigrants to the US may signal similar trends within Brazil itself.
Lula must be mindful of how quickly political loyalties can shift, especially among voters who have experienced different political and economic systems.
The Brazilian-American Voting Shift: A 2026 Warning for Lula
For Brazil’s 2026 elections, Lula and his party may need to reassess their strategies. They should focus on addressing domestic economic and social issues that resonate with voters, similar to how American politicians target specific demographic groups.
Moreover, cultivating new leadership within the Workers’ Party could be crucial, given Lula’s age and the potential for voter fatigue. The Brazilian-American voting trend also underscores the importance of engaging with diaspora communities.
These voters can influence perceptions of Brazil abroad and potentially affect diplomatic and economic relations between the two countries.
The Brazilian-American Voting Shift: A 2026 Warning for Lula
