Carnival Corporation CEO Arnold Donald recently stated on the cruise giant’s second quarter and business update call that Carnival Cruise Line is expected to operate at “110 percent occupancy” for the summer season. He said “Carnival Cruise Line also became our first brand to sail with its entire fleet in May and expects frequency to approach 110 percent during our third quarter.”
Cruise trade publication Cruise Industry News talks about what it calls a “strong North American cruise market” and said Carnival is “pivoting to add more capacity in the form of two reallocated Costa Cruises ships under the Costa by Carnival umbrella “.
Cruise Industry News failed to address the obvious fact that COVID-19 is currently on the rise and cruise guests and crew members are being affected by the ongoing pandemic. The new and stickier variants, the BA.4 and BA.5, are wreaking havoc on the ship. According to the CDC, 100% of the 94 cruise ships sailing from US waters have cases of COVID-19. Zero ships are designated green. 91 are orange and have met the threshold for investigation by the CDC. Only two are yellow.
And still no Status Red – even with BA variants 4 and 5 embedded, health care destinations overloaded, multiple cases per ship – thresholds met. Very curious.
— Fair Sailing (@Fair_Sailing) June 30, 2022
Many members of the public scoffed at Carnival’s plans. First, many expressed skepticism that Carnival could actually fill its cruise ships. The reality is that families considering recreational cruises are faced with 100% of cruise ships having COVID-19 on board according to the CDC’s COVID-19 panel. Guests face the prospect of spending their cruise quarantined in their cabins or being forced to incur hotel expenses while quarantined ashore. Additionally, there is an industry-wide shortage of crew members due to the pandemic and the fact that many crew members are unwilling to return to the cruise industry after being stuck at sea for months during the initial COVID outbreak -19. Many ships are short staffed and lack the right flight attendants, bartenders and waiters. As a result, some cruise ships may not offer basic cabin cleaning and dining services or standard entertainment.
Readers of the Cruise Industry News Facebook page rejected Carnival’s plans. Many comments have left, such as
- Inside cabins only are available on older and smaller ships.
- And just because they’re willing to run at 110% occupancy doesn’t mean the boats are that full either.
- Some ships feel crowded at full occupancy. It cannot be imagined at 110%.
- All they can do is submit reservations, like airlines do.
- Sounds like the crap the airlines pull, and we see what’s going on there…
- This is not a good sign, especially being short staffed right now.
- In her dreams. Where are they taking the crews?
- Without a full staff. Super fun time.
- Carnival is a disaster, fires, fights, smoke, what else can go wrong. 110% LOL.
- What could go wrong?
Carnival is currently facing unprecedented financial problems due to COVID-19 with staggering debts of $35,000,000,000 (billion) and an analyst (at Morgan Stanley) stated yesterday that Carnival stock could go to $0. Its shares hit a post-Covid-19 low of just $8.10 this morning, which is down from the previous post-Covid-19 low of $8.49 in April 2020.
Carnival is clearly motivated to pack its cruise ships with paying customers, despite the fact that it cannot adequately staff its ships or the certainty that many of its guests and crew members will become ill with COVID- 19, with the most sticky variants (BA. 4 & BA. 5) spread.
Large ships operating non-stop and packed with paying customers have always been a cornerstone of the cruise industry’s business model. Incorporating in foreign countries and registering vessels under the free flag of convenient countries such as Panama and the Bahamas to avoid US taxes, US wage and labor laws, and US safety regulations has been another cornerstone of foundation.
Large cruise ships packed with passengers appear to be one of the factors that prompted the CDC to issue its “no cruise” order due to the pandemic in early 2020. In the first no cruise order in March of 2020 , the CDC noted that the “high volume of people” who are gathered and mingled together is a key feature of cruise ships that increases the risk of transmission of COVID-19.
Carnivals had a frequency of about 70% in the last quarter. It is debatable that it can increase its occupancy by 40%. If it does, it will face a backlash due to poor services during crowded cruises.
Carnival’s stated goal of sailing at 110% occupancy while COVID-19 is again on the rise is foolish and irresponsible.
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Image Credit: Carnival Fleet – Carnival Corporation Information
