Mexico City, Mexico – On November 5, the United States will choose its next president in a race that has come down to Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.
For American voters, the issue of immigration has increased in importance in this election, especially among Trump supporters, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center.
Although it is difficult to estimate the total number of migrants who crossed the US-Mexico border, BBCciting US Border Patrol data, found that there were 8 million “encounters” with immigrants during President Biden’s administration and 2.4 million under Trump. Encounters include illegal crossings as well as those who tried to enter legally but were “deemed inadmissible”. And while the two candidates’ rhetoric on immigrants differs greatly, they have both said they want to regulate immigration and strengthen the southern border with Mexico.
However, next Tuesday’s election is not just about American citizens. About an 11-hour drive south from the nearest border crossing, in a migrant haven in Mexico City, people heading to the US border are also worried about the election’s potential impact on the country’s immigration system.
In particular, Venezuelans, many of whom are fleeing oppressive conditions under President Nicolas Maduro in hopes of a better life in the US, have conflicting views on the presidential candidates.
“I feel fear,” said a 41-year-old Venezuelan who left his country two months ago to head to the US. Aztec reports. The man, who asked that we not publish his name for fear of reprisal, said he hoped to reach the US to send money to his two children in Carabobo state.
“What I’m hearing is that President Donald Trump is going to retaliate against immigrants once they arrive in the United States,” he said. “Especially against those who are undocumented and those who have not yet arrived; I think their chance for a better future is fading.”
Speaking to immigrants at the shelter it became clear that most of them were far more familiar with Trump, who has built much of his political brand by demonizing immigrants. In his 2016 campaign, he called them “rapists,” and in his 2024 campaign he doubled down on a false story that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio were eating people’s pets. He has even promised to carry out mass deportations of millions of immigrants already in the US if elected president.
Despite those fears, the man said he had mixed feelings about Trump, especially because of the president’s tough talk about Maduro.
“It’s kind of contradictory… On the one hand, I would like Donald Trump for his stance [the government of Venezuela]”, he said. “But at the same time, I wouldn’t like him because of the policies he wants to implement against immigrants.”
Eulises Maurin, a former accounting professor from Caracas who currently works as a cook at a migrant shelter, shares the man’s concern about the possible consequences for migrants like him if Trump is elected.
“What if we’re with Donald Trump? His political campaign is based 100% on anti-immigrant policies.” He said that it is not enough that Trump is against Maduro, “he will mainly attack immigrants”.
The professor seemed to have a somewhat less developed opinion of Harris when asked about her chances of winning the election in November. “I don’t know him, but he must be just like Joe Biden with his policies,” Maurin said. “It’s like one day he’s good and the next day he’s bad … sometimes he starts a pro-immigration policy and suddenly starts another one against it.”
Both immigration and the candidates’ attitudes toward Venezuela were factors in asylum migrants, and Venezuela’s relationship under Trump versus the Biden/Harris administration differs greatly.
The Trump administration imposed crippling sanctions on Venezuela, deepening the country’s economic crisis. Additionally, his former national security adviser, John Bolton, said Trump thought it would be “nice” to invade Venezuela.
Biden, on the other hand, tends to take a softer public stance on Venezuela. Amid oil shortages during the Russia-Ukraine war, at the end of 2023, he lifted some sanctions on the country in exchange for the promise of free and fair elections. In April, Biden reinstated sanctions citing the Venezuelan government’s failure to do so. And after the widely debated election in July, his administration sanctioned even more Venezuelan officials.
“Diaspora groups and Venezuelans in particular tend to be pretty hawkish,” Anusha Rathi, the Americas director for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told me recently. Foreign Policy. “The idea of negotiating with the regime or the idea of lifting sanctions in order to try to negotiate is not something that many of them are likely to favor.”
While the decision about who leads the world’s largest military and economy has ramifications for people around the globe, for Venezuelans fleeing their country’s deepening economic and humanitarian crisis and heading for an uncertain future in the US, the presidential election of Tuesdays have a unique complexity.
“It’s difficult because it’s advantageous for us to have a Trump at one moment and a Harris at another,” said Jonás Gregorio González Rodríguez, a barber from Chacao, Venezuela, who is staying at the migrant shelter. “So we’re like, we don’t know who to go with, but we need a balance.”
