By Nehomar Hernandez*
In February of this year, CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) was held in Florida, broadly uniting the entire conservative world in the United States.
The big meeting of the American right, more than serving as a preamble to what would later become the legislative and state midterm elections, also served as a thermometer to gauge the mood within the ranks of the Republican Party and the presidential potential hers. aspirants.
All in all, 2024 is just around the corner.
That edition of CPAC left the impression that Donald Trump was the star.
Not only his speech during the activity was the one that probably raised more expectations – as well as applause – among the audience, but also from an objective point of view.
A poll of attendees at the event showed the former president had no major objections to a return as the GOP standard-bearer in the 2024 presidential election.
In that poll, support for Trump’s new presidential candidacy reached 59%, while his closest competitor, the governor of the state hosting the conference, Ron DeSantis, had only 28% to aspire to the office of the first US magistrate. .
However, things have changed over the year.
Especially after the somewhat unexpected result of the midterm elections in the Republican camp.
Although the party managed to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, the performance in the Senate was not ideal, leaving the Upper House in the hands of the Democrats.
In short, there was no “red tide”.
Thus, the blame began to be distributed, with a good part of the negative accusations being taken by Trump himself, who in these midterm elections returned to support a very high number of candidates (even more than he himself supported when the elections were held mid-term in 2018, when he was still president).
For his part, the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, managed to be re-elected with a margin of nearly 20 points over his Democratic rival.
An “anomaly” among a general scenario where, as it was said, the Republicans did not do as well as thought, and moreover, this happened in a state until recently considered a “swing state” due to constant electoral swings. between Democratic and Republican candidates.
Now, a USA Today and Suffolk University telephone poll published this week provides insight into how the legislative elections deeply marked Republican voters and the expectations they have for the 2024 presidential election.
On the one hand, Trump’s support for running again has gone from 60% during CPAC to 47%.
A percentage almost analogous to the 45% who do not want Trump to seek the party’s presidential nomination again.
On the other hand, DeSantis, who until now was limited to a local leadership role in Florida, is starting to look like a potential rising star at the national level in the GOP, evidenced by 65% of Republican voters who want to see him him as a candidate and right. 24% who do not want him to run.
In fact, in a hypothetical scenario projected by the poll, where 1,000 registered voters were asked their preferences in a scenario where they had to choose between Trump and DeSantis, 56% say they would like the Florida governor to be the standard bearer . , while only 33% chose to support the former president.
The study reflects an underlying tendency among Republican voters to support Trump’s policies during his time in office but wish someone else would implement them.
Specifically, 61% of respondents support the former president’s legacy and generally agree with the ideas he championed, but prefer another Republican candidate to implement them.
In this sense, DeSantis is seen as a figure who can fit into the shoes of Trumpism, but who at the same time offers youth and initiative to a party in need of alternative leadership.
It is not for nothing that he has built a powerful local force in the south of the United States of America based on the defense of a program that is completely in harmony with Trump’s approaches.
Prioritizing the free development of the economy, promoting legal migration and protecting the traditional family, among others.
The most important thing in all of this is that the USA Today and Suffolk University poll shows the Florida governor is in a better position to take on Joe Biden — if he ends up being the Democratic nominee — in 2024.
So, while a head-to-head Trump would lose to Biden 40% to 47%, the DeSantis vs. Biden scenario would end up quite differently, with the Republican taking 47% of the vote to the Democrats’ 43%.
* Venezuelan Journalist (Central University of Venezuela) and Master in Political Science (Simón Bolívar University).
He is currently working on his PhD in Political Science and directs the radio program “Y Así Nos Va” on Radio Caracas Radio.
With information from La Gaceta
