As 2025 approaches, the global oil market faces challenges from a projected glut and emerging automotive and energy trends.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that oil demand will reach 106 million barrels per day by 2030.
However, BP sees this peak occurring in 2025, at 102 million barrels per day. These views point to a slower growth in oil use.
Non-OPEC+ countries plan to pump more oil. The U.S., Guyana, Brazil and Canada could push supply to 113.8 million barrels per day by 2030. That increase could outpace demand, possibly causing additional oil.
OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has cut production until 2025 to keep prices stable.
But this may not stop too much oil. The group may need to make tough choices soon to stay in the game.
At the same time, electric cars are hitting the bumps. In 2024, major car manufacturers are changing their plans for EVs.
Toyota will produce 30% fewer electric vehicles by 2026 due to sluggish sales. They now aim for 1 million EVs by 2026, up from 1.5 million.
Ford, GM and Volkswagen have also changed their EV goals. Some are now focusing on hybrid cars as an intermediate step. This indicates that electric vehicles may grow more slowly than previously thought, which could affect demand for diesel.
These changes in the car industry could shape the future of the oil market. Slow EV growth could keep diesel demand high for longer. This can balance out some of the extra oil expected.
EV Slowdown Meets Oil Oversupply: Forecast to 2025
For oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia, money is a major concern. The kingdom needs oil at $100 a barrel to finance its grand plans. Lower prices could force cuts to major projects, hurting its future dreams.
S&P Global still sees plenty of oil potential in 2025. But the energy market is hard to predict. World events, new technology, or sudden currency changes can change these assumptions.
As 2025 approaches, oil production, car technology and energy use will shape the market. The potential extra oil means more than just changes in the market. It shows a complex shift in global energy patterns.
How countries, businesses and people deal with these issues will matter a lot. The next few years will test oil countries, energy firms and car manufacturers. Their choices will affect our money and nature for a long time.
