For the past 14 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the picks I’m looking at in Monday’s MLB draft.
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) scores a win (+130)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. Can be played with +120 odds.
Tony Gonsolin has been nothing short of fantastic for the Dodgers this season. The 28-year-old right-hander has posted a 16-1 record with Los Angeles winning 19 of his 23 starts. His 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP rank second and third best in MLB respectively. He ranks in the 73rd percentile or better in xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and slugging rate. His 58th percentile walk rate and 56th percentile strikeout rate are both above average, and he has a career high percentage this season. Gonsolin leads the way in numbers with a 63.4% first-inning strikeout rate. This puts his follow rate in the 58th percentile and follow contact rate which is 6.4% lower than average.
The former St. Louis product Mary has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 20 of his 23 starts and has gone 5 innings in 19 straight starts with 6 or more innings in 11 of his last 17 starts. Gonsolin has made 4 starts in August including a combined 23.2 IP. He allowed 10 hits, 7 walks and 2 earned runs in his 20 innings. Three of those starts were against current playoff teams, and now he draws a bad Marlins offense. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, Miami ranks 29th in wOBA, 30th in OPS, 30th in SLG and 27th in ISO. Of the last 25 right-handed starters to face Miami, 23 have gone the required 5 innings.
The Dodgers will likely give Mookie Betts a day off according to manager Dave Roberts, but Will Smith should return to the lineup after sitting out yesterday. This team has a lot of powerful bats, especially when compared to Miami’s. In the last 30 days against righties, the Dodgers rank first in SLG, OPS, wOBA and ISO with a wRC+ of 146, also tops in MLB. While they have a series starting tomorrow against the Mets, this is a well-rounded, veteran team that shouldn’t be overlooked by a Marlins team that is 5-1 this season.
Miami has yet to face Gonsoli, who should take advantage of the pitcher, and behind him is another Dodgers advantage with superior ball. Los Angeles ranks 6th in xFIP and 1st in WHIP over the last month. Miami’s unit ranks 22nd in xFIP and 29th in WHIP over the same span. Look for Gonsoli to record his 17th MLB win of the season tonight.
Read our best YRFI/NRFI bets for today’s MLB roster
Pablo Lopez (MIA) shot under 5.5 (-138)
Odds available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publication. Playable at -145 before I went back to output below 17.5.
I had success betting on Pablo Lopez earlier in the season when his offensive lines were soft in easier matchups than he is today. He started the year clearing 5 or 6 shots with regularity and ease, but has since struggled to find consistency. Lopez is coming off his best start in over a month, when he posted 6 scoreless innings against Oakland. The Athletics’ offense is near the bottom of the league and strikes out often, but Lopez recorded just 5 Ks in 6 IP. After 6 or more hits in 6 of his first 9 starts this season, Lopez has just 6 hits in 5 of his last 16 starts, even failing to reach that mark against Pittsburgh.
Out of 111 qualifying pitchers, Lopez throws the 28th most plate appearances. As a team, the Dodgers rank 2nd in pitches per plate appearance. They also have the 8th highest walk rate and 5th highest walk-to-strikeout ratio against right-handed batters in the last 30 days. On the season they have the second-lowest sack rate and the 11th-highest sack contact rate when going out of the zone. This Dodgers offense has been the best in baseball over the last 30 days, and indeed all season long against opposing righties. In terms of strikeouts, they rank 24th over the last 30 days with a 20.9% K% against righties. Of the last 22 right-handed starters to face Los Angeles, 17 have been held to 5 or fewer hits, with 12 of them having 4 or fewer.
Lopez has a 1.28 home ERA and has failed to reach 6 innings in each of his last 5 home starts. Behind him is a relatively fresh ball, considering they had an off day on Saturday thanks to a complete game from Sandy Alcantara. They only used 3 guns yesterday and should have them all available. While I don’t think Lopez goes 6 innings, I believe he can go under this offensive line even if he finishes the sixth. Over his last 16 starts, Lopez is averaging 18.25 pitches per strikeout. At that rate we’d need 110 pitches for the 6th inning, and Lopez is averaging 91.25 pitches per start over that span.
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