Commentary by Ron Cheong
News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Weds. October 13, 2024: The election of Donald Trump as the 47thth The President of the United States, with Republican control of the Senate and likely the House of Representatives, is expected to bring sweeping changes.
These include staffing his administration with like-minded people and purging professional staff in government agencies, including the military, justice department, law enforcement, foreign trade, taxation, health care and social services, replacing them with officials whose primary loyalty is to Trump.
We survived Trump 1.0; soon it will be time to face Trump 2.0 on steroids — and without handrails.
It will be an authoritarian, isolationist, heavy-handed, America First, ruthless, transactional, pro-rich, quid-pro-quo, anti-immigration, anti-China, tariff-imposing, “baby drill” administration. “. Even more surreal, it will be led by a convicted felon, insurgent and admirer of dictators – all in what we understood to be the world’s largest democracy.
Immigrants
The Caribbean and Latin America are likely to be among the first to feel the pain if his promised deportation of “23” million undocumented workers starting on “Day 1” becomes new; with these countries struggling to absorb the influx, not to mention the worry of family separations in the US.
His border wall will come back into focus, and Mexico, now the largest exporter to the US at about $600 billion, could face punitive tariffs to bring them down. At a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, he vowed to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico unless they help reduce migration to the US. He said of course it would work or raise the rate to 50%, then 75%. Trump has also vowed to impose a 100% tariff on cars made in Mexico. Mexico is secondn.d the largest car manufacturer in this hemisphere.
Venezuela is also at the top of the list. Trump repeatedly riled his MAGA followers and horrified other Americans that Venezuela had emptied their prisons and asylums and sent criminals to the US. How the sleazy Trump handles that lie to the satisfaction of his followers is anyone’s guess. He could increase sanctions, or given his transactional nature, he could strike a deal with Nicolas Maduro to bring back some of the roughly 600,000 refugees to the US in exchange for allowing more Venezuelan oil onto the world market.
Tariffs and China
China, which is seen as using Mexico as a back door to the US market, is also set to pay dearly. China is the main car supplier to Mexico with their cheap EVs being very popular. A Chinese manufacturer’s EVs sell for about half the price of the cheapest Tesla. And major Chinese manufacturer BYD had considered setting up their own new auto plants in Mexico.
The impact on other Latin American countries will vary depending on how friendly or unfriendly they are to Trump. Equally important will be how receptive they have been to China’s diplomatic and economic engagement through the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). China’s financing of Caribbean and Latin American (LAC) countries reached $136.5 billion between 2005 and 2022, with the main beneficiaries being Venezuela ($60 billion), Brazil ($30 billion), Ecuador ($18.2 billion) and Argentina, ($17 billion).
After decades of US neglect of the region, Vice President Kamala Harris launched an initiative last year in part to counter growing Chinese influence. The stated goal of the initiative is to improve regional food and energy sufficiency. It is complemented by the PACC 2030 partnership with the US on climate change adaptation and mitigation, which aligns with the Paris Agreement, to which the US is a signatory, and the UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). to achieve, “peace and prosperity for people and planet.”
Guyana, which is 85% forested, has long been a leader in the environmental conversation with its Low Carbon Development Strategy. With its recently discovered oil, abundant arable land, and an average annual deforestation rate of 0.053% as of 2018, the country is a hotbed of initiatives. Trump has a completely different take on climate change, and it remains to be seen how that will play out.
Cuba is likely to see most of Obama’s liberalizations reversed once Trump takes office. The country is already suffering from island-wide blackouts that last for days as a result of their critical power shortage. To add to their woes, the island was hit by a 6.8 magnitude hurricane on Sunday.
Oil
Oil may play a larger role than first appears on the surface. One would assume that Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana and Suriname would find favor with Trump.
In 2020, during the previous Trump administration, the US, through its ambassador to Guyana Sarah Lynch, now Deputy Commander at SOUTHCOM, and then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, played a key role in preserving the country’s democracy when the current president resisted. handing over power after the elections.
Since then, there has been a strengthening of relations between the two governments with the US supporting Guyana against Venezuela’s illegal claim to two-thirds of its territory. Since then the two countries have conducted joint military exercises and increased cooperation against drug trafficking, money laundering and corruption. It is expected that this cooperation and territorial support will continue. But like all things Trump, nothing is ever certain. It is conceivable that the transactional Trump could reach some sort of deal with Maduro.
For now, however, things appear to be in Guyana’s favor, and its government has said it looks forward to continuing its working relationship with Trump 1.0. Although Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world at 298 billion barrels, its oil is of low quality and difficult and expensive to work. Guyana on the other hand, which is ranked 17thth in the world with about 11 billion barrels and growing, it produces high-quality oil categorized as medium sweet – a good incentive for Trump to maintain support for Guyana, which has quickly become an important supplier to world markets, and perhaps even encourage accelerated production.
In addition, Elon Musk, Trump’s adviser on all things and a beneficiary through Tesla if Trump imposes tariffs on electric vehicles from Mexico, is known to have recently held a teleconference with Guyana’s president, Dr. Irfaan Ali; which raises the possibility that in addition to Guyana’s oil, there is an interest in SpaceX. Guyana is located close to the equator where the 1,000 MPH spin gives extra boost to missiles launched from that country.
But there is no doubt that the Caribbean and Latin American region will face many challenges under Trump 2.0 and will have to prepare for the unexpected. But as the saying goes: “Life goes on”.
