By Dr. Isaac Newton
News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Tuesday. November 12, 2024: Donald Trump’s recent victory brings uncertainty and curiosity, especially for the Caribbean, where close ties with the US have long influenced the region’s economy and society. Trump’s promises about immigration, economic nationalism and foreign policy could affect Caribbean economies, social stability and diplomatic relations in ways that could be challenging and transformative.
A major concern is Trump’s stance on immigration, which includes plans for large-scale deportations of undocumented immigrants. Many Caribbean communities in the US send vital remittances home, supporting local economies and family networks. If Trump proceeds with deportations, returning citizens could face limited employment opportunities and overburdened social services, putting additional pressure on family support systems. A drop in remittances would also mean less domestic spending and investment, affecting household and community stability.
Trump’s economic policies also bring potential impacts. With tariffs on imports and a focus on “America First” manufacturing, the cost of American goods could rise, affecting Caribbean economies that rely heavily on American imports. In addition, if American businesses turn away from foreign suppliers, Caribbean exporters may struggle to maintain their market share in America, particularly in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. These changes could make everyday goods more expensive in the Caribbean, affecting people’s budgets and quality of life.
China, meanwhile, has become a major player in the Caribbean, investing in infrastructure such as roads, ports and real estate. As the US and China continue their trade rivalry, the Caribbean may find itself balancing ties with both superpowers. Increased Chinese investment could boost the Caribbean’s development, but it would also bring risks, especially if countries depend heavily on Chinese loans and investment.
Changes in US foreign policy may further affect regional security. Trump’s “America First” stance suggests reduced US involvement abroad, which could limit funding for programs that address crime and drug trafficking in the Caribbean. Countries may find it more difficult to address these issues alone, which can affect not only local security, but also the tourism industry that many islands rely on.
Trump’s policies in the US may also affect minority communities and their ability to send money to the Caribbean. Reduced remittances could mean less money for essentials such as food, school fees and medical care, hurting families and local economies.
In response to these changing dynamics, Caribbean leaders have opportunities to increase resilience through local initiatives and stronger regional partnerships. One example is investing in sustainable tourism and clean energy projects that can attract international visitors while reducing dependence on foreign energy imports. For example, Barbados’ solar energy initiatives could serve as a model for the wider Caribbean, increasing energy independence and creating green jobs.
Caribbean countries can also work together to strengthen regional food production. By developing cooperative agricultural ventures, such as shared fisheries and greenhouse projects, they can reduce food import costs while ensuring greater food security. This can reduce vulnerability to global trade changes and empower local economies to thrive, benefiting both consumers and producers.
Finally, fostering technology-driven education and small business growth can empower Caribbean youth and drive innovation. Countries like Jamaica, which has prioritized technology education, offer promising models for others to follow. A regional technology hub can attract investment, reduce youth unemployment and strengthen the local economy, creating pathways for sustainable development and community well-being.
Given this landscape, Caribbean leaders will need to take a proactive and balanced approach to ensure stability. Building ties beyond the US and China can help the region weather economic shocks and increase resilience. By strengthening regional cooperation and prioritizing policies that protect the well-being of citizens, Caribbean countries can manage risks and make the most of new opportunities during these uncertain times.
In this new political era, Caribbean nations face challenges and choices, and their leaders have a unique role in guiding their communities toward stability and growth.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Dr. Isaac Newton is an experienced international consultant and policy advisor with extensive expertise in Caribbean affairs, US-Caribbean relations, and sustainable development. With over 30 years of experience spanning governance, economic policies and strategic planning, Dr. Newton specializes in guiding regional leaders through complex global shifts. His work focuses on helping Caribbean nations navigate economic challenges, increase resilience and seize opportunities for sustainable growth. A Harvard, Princeton, and Columbia-trained expert, he combines a deep knowledge of the unique dynamics of the Caribbean with a practical, results-driven approach to community empowerment and transformational leadership.
