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Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Thursday’s MLB draft.
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George Kirby (Mariners) 5+ hits/Mariners ML (+100)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. Playable down to -110.
Seattle starter George Kirby has been a huge hit for the Mariners this season. The 24-year-old right-hander has posted a 7-4 record with a 2.98 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but when you dig deeper into the numbers, it’s clear his success is consistent. Kirby throws first pitch strikes 66.3% of the time and works in the zone 6.5% more than the league average. That might lead people to think he’s a ball-to-contact hitter, but his strikeout numbers would disagree. Kirby ranks in the 68th percentile in K% this season as he draws 4.3% more swings in the zone than average, but allows contact on those swings 1.8% less than average. It ranks in the 99th percentile in BB% and its efficiency is extremely noticeable. In Kirby’s last 64.2 IP (which includes 12 starts) he has recorded a strikeout every 12.73 pitches thrown with 74 total strikeouts in that span. That includes covering this line in 8 of his last 9 starts.
Kirby has been elite both on the road and during the day this season. When on the road he has a 2.88 ERA and .238 OBA with just 4 home runs allowed in 56.1 IP. On the day he has a 2.22 ERA and .238 OBA with 3 walks issued in 44.2 IP. He now draws an Oakland offense in a pitcher-friendly park on the road during the day. Oakland has performed a little better lately with a high line drive rate and getting Luis Castillo out of the game in the 5th inning. That said, Kirby allows 5% fewer line drives than the league average and has had success against Oakland already this year. He was roughed up in their first game, but still recorded 9 tackles. His next 2 starts against them resulted in 15 hits on 13 at-bats with 1 run. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, Oakland ranks 27th in wOBA, 28th in OPS and 25th in ISO. They also have the 5th highest K% against righties at 26.4%.
Seattle has the advantage in terms of starting the game with Kirby facing Adrian Martinez. Martinez has struggled in the majors so far with a 1st xERA percentage and ranking 2nd in xBA and xSLG with a 6th percentile slugging percentage. He’s not missing hits, and Seattle’s lineup has a ton of power, despite being inconsistent at times. In the last month, the Mariners rank in the middle of the pack in most metrics, except that they are first in ISO, second in FB%, and second in HR/FB%. I prefer Seattle’s lineup in this spot and their ball is much higher than Oakland’s. The Mariners rank 7th in xFIP and WHIP in the last month as a bullpen while Oakland ranks 25th in xFIP and 26th in WHIP during that time. Seattle is 22-7 as a road favorite this season and 14-8 when Kirby starts and I’m looking for that to continue this afternoon.
Be sure to check out our complete Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics predictions
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