from Ron Cheong
News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Weds. November 27, 2024: Former Australian Prime Minister Dr. Kevin Rudd, in his speech on “Challenges for Small States in Navigating Turbulent Geopolitical Times”, said: “… this geopolitical race for regional and global dominance is intensifying at a time when serious new global challenges are world with increasing intensity – led by an emerging global climate crisis, the ever-present threat of global pandemics, and the revolutionary impact of artificial intelligence on all past assumptions about agency. human rights, economic competitiveness and national security are great…”
Guyana’s Pragmatic Approach
Struck by the challenges of catching up in Superpower Geopolitical Rivalries, a brand new oil economy with dizzying challenges, existential national security challenges and all other pressures, Guyana’s leaders in recent years have reacted swiftly and skillfully; perhaps armed with the benefit of a historical retrospective of what the country has been through and how long and difficult the road back has been. More than most small states, Guyana’s very survival will depend less on dogma and idealism and more on the tough disciplined approach of thoughtful but swift pragmatic action.
When Donald Trump became President-elect, Guyana’s leaders rushed to congratulate him, even as others held back. And they noted the role of US Ambassador to Guyana Sarah-Ann Lynch and the role of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in ensuring the transition of power after the recent elections in Guyana. They said they expected that kind of relationship to continue in Trump 2.0.
They also praised Secretary of State Marco Rubio for supporting a $180 million IDB loan for the Guyana Shore Base Project, a consortium serving the country’s growing oil industry. The Biden administration froze the loan in 2022 while simultaneously lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s fossil fuel industry.
They have also cultivated friendships and allies in the region. And last week they lavishly hosted Prime Minister Modi of India, who seems to have taken a liking to Trump and has a good friendship with him.
During the three-day visit, Modi was treated to cultural delights and he even participated in the singing of Bhajans. Modi called the President of Guyana Dr. Irfaan Ali and the two former Presidents Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo and Donald Ramotar brand ambassadors for Guyana. At the culmination of the visit, Modi was awarded Guyana’s highest civilian honour, the Order of Excellence, by President Dr. and for his commitment to strengthening India-Guyana relations.”
It’s good to have friends with contacts, especially in Trump’s world where a lot depends on the relationship.
Another plus of sorts is that Elon Musk, Trump’s chief cheerleader, friend ever present and richest man of the word, has expressed an interest in providing Starlink internet services to Guyana. Although this is a double-edged sword in which Musk’s deep pockets could eventually establish a monopoly and deepen Guyana’s support of the US, the alternatives facing Venezuela ease fears.
Whatever we may think of Trump, these are thoughtful initiatives by a small country whose survival and that of its citizens may depend on the goodwill of the United States.
The challenge of Venezuela
Guyana needs the US and its gunboats in its corner, if only as a deterrent. Venezuela has claimed two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, challenging an 1899 Paris arbitration ruling that established the borders of the two countries. Both negotiating parties, Venezuela and Britain at the time, accepted the award. About 70 years later Venezuela began producing maps showing about two-thirds of Guyana as Venezuelan territory. And in 2023 Venezuela said it would issue Venezuelan identity documents to people in Guyana’s Essequibo region.
There is a great disparity in the size and military capabilities of the counties. Venezuela has a population of about 29 million less than 2 million of the refugees fleeing the country and an army of 343,000. Guyana has a population of less than one million and approximately 4,000 active and reserve personnel.
So when it was revealed that the previous government negotiated a slow revenue deal with Exxon, much less beneficial than the deal with next-door neighbor Suriname, Vice President Jagdeo refused to try to renegotiate the contract because of the message it would have. send to potential investors and from the point of view that contracts must be respected. It is possible that it may have considered leaving the contract as it is given some other protections by Venezuela, which would think twice before interfering in Exxon’s licensed area.
China’s US Geopolitics
Additionally, Guyana faces a complex set of dynamics where they are now forced to make a binary choice between the US and China. During decades of US neglect of Latin America and the Caribbean, China extended its hand and funding to the region creating goodwill and influence.
When President Biden took office, he sought to mend the alliances broken during the Trump years and bring the US back into the family of nations. He sought to restore coalitions and together with allies put up a front against China’s growing influence.
US Vice President Kamala Harris launched the initiative last year in part to counter growing Chinese influence in the Caribbean. The stated goals of the initiative were to improve Regional Food and Energy Security and also to moderate climate change. Guyana is a linchpin in all these initiatives, but it also forces a choice between the US and China. Recently, Guyana’s ruling political party removed Marxism-Leninism and socialism from its constitution. In fact, the party has long taken a pro-private sector approach combined with progressive housing, education and health policies since the 1990s when it returned to power; so in many ways the move was symbolic and an affirmation of her status to viewers that she had cast her lot with the US and the UK as her main security and trading partners.
The road before and after
Guyana, which is 85% forested, has long been a leader in the environmental conversation with its Low Carbon Development Strategy. Vice President Jagdeo, who was the President of Guyana at the time, was named Environmental Hero of the Year in 2008. And in 2009 Jagdeo signed an agreement Norwegian Minister of the Environment Erik Solheim, in which he pledged 250 million dollars to Guyana for conservation of its forests. With an average annual deforestation rate of 0.053% as of 2018 and its abundant arable land the fits well with the Biden administration, but would be less of a priority with a Trump administration.
Guyana has come a long way. Seen as communist in the 1960s, it was swept away by geopolitical forces that led to a downward spiral. Three decades ago, the country had become the secondn.d the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere after Haiti before it began to make a remarkable comeback. Long before it became famous, Guyana was leading the world in environmental conservation. Before oil in 2015, it was the fastest growing economy in the region with its national development strategy and its low carbon development strategy as a central part of their economy. Guyana is now the fastest growing economy in the world. GDP grew by 33% ($20.6 billion) in 2023 and is expected to be in the 20% range in 2024.
It is clear that the country is making every effort to continue building a prosperous future for its citizens and not to be sidelined again by geopolitical forces.
