It has been nearly four months since President Nicolas Maduro won Venezuela’s presidential election, which was widely discussed for the government’s failure to provide evidence of his victory at the regional level.
Even before the election, consulting firm ORC Consultores predicted that 18% of Venezuelans would be willing to migrate within six months of the election if Maduro retained power. That would add to the nearly 7.7 million Venezuelan immigrants and refugees already living worldwide — 6.5 million of whom are in Latin American and Caribbean countries, according to the R4V Platform, an inter-agency coordination platform for Venezuelan refugees and migrants. .
Image Source: R4V Platform
As the crackdown on dissent in Venezuela continues after the election, some analysts are worried about another surge in the migration of Venezuelans to other Latin American countries.
August and September saw an increase in the flow of migration to neighboring countries such as Colombia and Brazil, “with a significant increase in refugee applications in the context of post-election repression in Venezuela,” María Gabriela Trompetero, a researcher and lecturer on migration at the University. from Bielefeld, Germany, said Latin American Reports.
Trompetero noted that 1,693 asylum applications were filed in Colombia between July 28 and September 19, and “in Brazil, the net balance of Venezuelan arrivals and departures showed an increase of 28.6% in August, reaching 1,933 refugee applications, the highest number recorded between January and August this year.”
At the Darien Gap, a dangerous 60-mile jungle border crossing between Colombia and Panama popular with migrants from around the world, including Venezuelans, the number of Venezuelans taking the route also increased in September. “Although the highs of the year have not yet been revealed in the region, an upward trend has been identified since July 28,” according to Trompetero.
According to the researcher, the reaction to the increase in migration from Latin American countries “has been different”.
A consular crisis and growing insurance
While some countries in the region have not experienced unusual increases in post-election migration from Venezuela, many have adopted regulatory and security measures – which tend to frame migration as a national security threat.
The R4V platform noted that while Peru and Chile did not observe “unusual population movements,” their governments have adopted security measures in anticipation of the possible arrival of more Venezuelan migrants, including “increased border controls and military presence in the case of Chile”, Trompetero. said.
In addition to increased security in some countries, Venezuelan immigrants also face migratory challenges abroad thanks to political shocks from the election.
After the Venezuelan elections were condemned by several regional governments, the Maduro regime severed diplomatic relations with Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, Uruguay, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador.
The decision led to the removal of diplomatic personnel from each country, as well as the closure of several embassies and consulates across the region – exacerbating challenges for Venezuelans in these countries to process essential documents and consular services.
For example, in Panama, Venezuelan migrants will be allowed to use expired passports to carry out procedures and documents for six months. However, “the government has also announced that it will begin deporting Venezuelan citizens to third countries,” Trompetero said.
In September, Argentina implemented a special immigration adjustment regime that “allows Venezuelans to adjust their status with expired documents, as well as other flexibilities,” Tromptero explained. The scheme applies to those who were in the country before September 23 and those who have logged in regularly since then, but will only be available for 90 days.
As Venezuela becomes more isolated in the region, Venezuelan migrants face greater obstacles to adjustment.
Nearest neighbors: Colombia
Colombia is the country with the largest number of immigrants from Venezuela, with over 2.9 million people as of January 2024.
According to political risk firm Colombia Risk Analysis, August “saw the highest flow of Venezuelan citizens entering Colombia compared to the same month in 2023. It was also the highest number of Venezuelan immigrants entering Colombia this year.”
However, during September, the number of Venezuelans entering Colombia fell sharply, “suggesting that the remaining months of the year will see very similar numbers of entries and exits to the months before August,” the firm said. Latin American Reports.
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On August 27, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it is working on a new statute for permanent Venezuelan immigrants, instead of the extension of the temporary protection statute of 2021. This new “category” will be given to migrants that are already inside Colombian territory.
Among these new measures to regulate migrants, is the “Visitor Visa, which can benefit people who left Venezuela after July 28,” Trompetero said.
However, Tromptero also highlighted how Colombia’s refugee system “remains slow and uncertain: applicants are not allowed to work while waiting for a response, a process that can take three years or more.”
January 10, 2025: Another crucial date
On January 10, 2025, the new presidential term will be inaugurated in Venezuela. As Maduro begins his third consecutive term, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is convinced that Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who through central voting data published the opposition and was scrutinized by outside election observers, is said to won the election by a large margin. , will be sworn in as president.
Tromptero considers how the number of people leaving Venezuela “may continue to increase after January 10, as some people still have hope for possible political changes or organize to have more financial resources to start the emigration process.”
Colombia’s risk analysis agrees, as “based on the numbers [they] I believe it is likely that once Nicolas Maduro is inaugurated in January 2025, the number of Venezuelan citizens entering Colombia will increase in February and March.
This means that “Colombia will continue to be a transit country for Venezuelan migrants, which means that routes like Darien and other developing connections with Brazil and Peru will experience a greater influx of people in the coming year.” , says Colombia’s Risk Analysis.
Xenophobia and the value of immigrants
Studies by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and other research centers show that Venezuelan migration has a positive impact on the economies of Latin American host countries in the medium and long term.
Tromptero believes that the positive impact of Venezuelan migration could be “even greater if all forcibly displaced persons were in a regular situation and could enter the formal labor market, working in the areas to which they are trained”.
“If countries continue to opt for lockdown and security policies, this potential cannot be fully realized,” Trompetero said.
Furthermore, if some leaders in the region continue to engage in xenophobic discourse – for example statements by Peruvian President Dina Boluarte that attempt to link Venezuelan migrants to crime without an empirical basis – Tromptero considers how “discrimination will continue to grow, exacerbating social tensions in host communities and driving displaced people to seek new destinations, such as the United States, through dangerous jungle-like routes Darien.
In addition, the migration researcher considers that the recent election of Donald Trump as president of the United States, “will increase the pressure on Latin American countries to restrain immigrants and refugees” and will slow down their movement to the USA.
On the other hand, “this will further complicate a scenario that requires multilateral responses with a focus on human rights, the easing of demands and the regulation of migration and integration policies,” Trompetero concluded.
