According to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, international tourism saw a strong rebound in the first five months of 2022, with almost 250 million international arrivals recorded. This compares with 77 million arrivals from January to May 2021 and means the sector has recovered almost half (46%) of pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
“The recovery of tourism has picked up pace in many parts of the world, meeting the challenges that stand in its way.”said UNWTO Secretary General Zurab Pololikashvili. At the same time, he also advises caution regarding “economic headwinds and geopolitical challenges that could affect the sector in the remainder of 2022 and beyond.”
Europe and America lead the recovery
Europe welcomed more than four times more international arrivals than in the first five months of 2021 (+350%), driven by strong interregional demand and the lifting of all travel restrictions in a growing number of countries. The region saw a particularly strong performance in April (+458%), reflecting a busy Easter period. IN Americas, arrivals doubled (+112%). However, the strong rebound is measured against weak results in 2021 and arrivals remain overall 36% and 40% below 2019 levels in the two regions, respectively.
The same pattern is seen in other regions. Strong growth in Middle East (+157%) and Africa (+156%) remained respectively 54% and 50% below the levels of 2019, and Asia and the Pacific almost doubled arrivals (+94%), although numbers were 90% below 2019 as some borders remained closed to non-essential travel. Here, the latest easing of restrictions can be seen in improved results for April and May.
Looking at sub-regions, some have recovered between 70% and 80% of their pre-pandemic levels, led by Caribbean and Central Americafollowed by Southern Mediterranean, Western and Northern Europe. It is worth noting that several destinations exceeded 2019 levels, including the US Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, the Republic of Moldova, Albania, Honduras and Puerto Rico.
International Tourism Arrivals
Spending on tourism is also increasing
Growing tourist expenses outside source markets is consistent with the observed recovery. International spending by tourists from France, Germany, Italy and the United States is now at 70% to 85% of pre-pandemic levels, while spending from India, Saudi Arabia and Qatar has already surpassed 2019 levels.
In international terms tourism receipts earned in destinations, a growing number of countries – Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Seychelles, Romania, North Macedonia, Saint Lucia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Pakistan, Sudan, Turkey, Bangladesh, El Salvador, Mexico, Croatia and Portugal – have fully recovered their pre-pandemic levels.
Tackling growing challenges
Strong demand during the Northern Hemisphere summer season is expected to consolidate these positive results, especially as more destinations ease or lift travel restrictions. As of July 22, 62 destinations (of which 39 in Europe) had no COVID-19 restrictions in place, and a growing number of destinations in Asia have begun to ease theirs.
According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the overall decrease in international air capacity in 2022 will be limited to 20% to 25% of seats offered by airlines compared to 2019. Such stability is also reflected in hotel occupancy rates. Based on data from industry benchmark firm STR, global occupancy rates rose to 66% in June 2022, up from 43% in January.
However, stronger-than-expected demand has created significant operational and workforce challenges, while the war in Ukraine, rising inflation and interest rates, and fears of an economic slowdown continue to pose a risk to the recovery. The International Monetary Fund points to a global economic slowdown from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and then to 2.9% in 2023. At the same time, the UNWTO continues to work closely with the World Health Organization (WHO) to monitor the pandemic as well as emerging public health emergencies and their potential impact on travel.
Regional scenarios for 2022
UNWTO forward-looking scenarios published in May 2022 show international arrivals reaching 55% to 70% of pre-pandemic levels in 2022. Outcomes depend on evolving circumstances, mainly changing travel restrictions, continued inflation, including prices high energy and general economic conditions, the evolution of the war in Ukraine, as well as the health situation related to the pandemic. More recent challenges such as staff shortages, severe airport congestion and flight delays and cancellations may also affect international tourism numbers.
Scenarios by region show that Europe and the Americas record the best tourism results in 2022, while Asia and the Pacific are expected to lag behind due to more restrictive travel policies. Arrivals of international tourists in Europe may rise to 65% or 80% of 2019 levels in 2022, depending on different conditions, while in Americas they can reach 63% to 76% of those levels.
IN Africa and the Middle East arrivals may reach around 50% to 70% of pre-pandemic levels, while in Asia and the Pacific they will remain at 30% of 2019 levels in the best-case scenario, due to tighter policies and restrictions.
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About the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) is the specialized agency of the United Nations that promotes tourism as a tool for equitable, inclusive and sustainable development. Working with Member States, international organizations and the private sector, UNWTO promotes safe and hassle-free travel for all. UNWTO also works to make tourism the foundation of international trust and cooperation and a central pillar of recovery. As part of the wider UN system, UNWTO is at the forefront of global efforts to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, including its ability to create decent jobs, promote equality and maintain natural and cultural heritage.
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