For the past 14 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Tuesday’s MLB draft.
Jesus Luzardo (Marlins) under 2.5 earned runs (-125)
Odds available at time of publication. Up to -140 odds can be played.
Jesus Luzardo has been talked about a lot as an upcoming prospect for years. The 24-year-old southpaw is finally starting to put things together at the major league level. In his 11 starts this season, Luzardo has held opponents to 2 or fewer earned runs 8 times. He has very impressive advanced stats including his 82nd xERA, 87th xBA, 82nd xSLG and 69th slugging percentage. Luzardo leads the numbers with a 68.1% strikeout rate on first pitches, which is very impressive for such a young pitcher. It’s also a mark nearly 10% higher than his rate last season. When ahead in the count, he increases his curveball usage to 43.6% and allows a .113 xBA and .150 xSLG to that pitch. Luzardo uses 4 pitches at least 22.1% of the time, which helps keep the strikeouts balanced. His average curveball is 83.8 mph, but his average 4-seam fastball hit 96.7 mph. His changeup serves as a crucial tool for him, as his average pitch speed mixed with his exceptional location has resulted in a .171 xBA and 47.8% slugging rate.
Luzardo’s splits show that he has performed worse at home, but that is due to the St. Louis and Atlanta for nearly half of those innings. Overall, LoanDepot Park is a pitcher-friendly park that tends to limit home run production. Tampa Bay is coming off a Rich Hill stretch in which the 42-year-old Hill went 7 scoreless innings while allowing 4 total base runners and striking out 11. In the last 60 days against left-handed hitters on the road, Tampa Bay has a wRC+ of just 71. They rank 26th in wOBA, 27th in OPS, 25th in ISO and 27th in AVG during that span. They faced just 12 non-starters from the left side during that stretch, with 7 of them under that number. Pitchers who allowed 3 or more earned runs were Nick Lodolo, DL Hall, Kris Bubic, Jose Saurez and Nestor Cortes, who pitched 7 innings. If Tucker Davidson, Yusei Kikuchi (twice) and Rich Hill can shut down this Tampa Bay offense, then I want to back Luzardo against them.
The Miami forward had an off day on Saturday and used low-leverage arms on Sunday before being called up as a unit in yesterday’s game. They should still have everyone available, and with Luzardo coming off a season-high in pitches thrown in his last start, they shouldn’t need to extend him at this point.
Be sure to check out our full Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins predictions
George Kirby (Mariners) over 5.5 shots (-135)
Odds are available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publication. Up to -140 odds can be played.
Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has shown flashes of dominance in his last 6 starts. His last start saw 24 consecutive hits thrown to start the game that set an MLB record. The 20th overall draft pick in the 2019 MLB draft has struck out 33.1 times over his last 6 starts with increasing walks in each start until right back where he left off. Kirby was sent to the minors for a short stint before returning two weeks later. This was a plan for Kirby by the organization in order to keep his totals down while being able to depend on him for the stretch run. Well, it’s time for the stretch run.
Seattle is in the middle of the AL wild card race, and Kirby has done his job during his recent turns around the rotation. His last 33.1 innings have resulted in a 1.11 WHIP and 2.43 ERA with just 4 walks and 0 home runs allowed. More importantly for this bet, though, Kirby has racked up 40 strikeouts in those 33.1 IP with a strikeout recorded every 11.68 pitches thrown. His 29.4% K% during those starts is an improvement from his already 64th K% on the season. The main thing I love about Kirby is his merciless throwing of punches. Kirby throws first pitch strikes 66.1% of the time. His 55.1% of pitches thrown in the zone would mean he’s a contact ball, but his stuff says otherwise. Opponents swing at his pitches in the zone 5.1% more than average, but connect on those swings 1.8% less than average. His 1.05 K/IP on the season ranks in the 57th percentile and he does not walk a batter while ranking in the 99th percentile in BB%. Kirby should see 85 or more pitches at this point and draw a very favorable matchup.
I will give the Tigers some credit by saying they have hit better over the last 2 weeks against right handed pitching. That said, in the last 30 days they have the highest strikeout rate in the league at 28.9%, 3.4% higher than the next closest team. During that span they rank 24th in BB%, 28th in SLG OPS and ISO and 29th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 80. On the year they have the 5th zone strike rate highest and the lowest 5th zone contact rate. They chase the most outfield pitches in baseball with the 11th lowest strikeout rate this season. Overall, they have the highest swing rate and the third highest whiff rate, which is a recipe for failure against quality opponents. Kirby has an xBA of .233 compared to his .268 OBA to this point and will likely see continued positive regression in that department. I like this place for the beginner to keep rolling.
Be sure to check out our complete Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers predictions
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