For the past 14 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Monday’s MLB draft.
Joe Ryan (MIN) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of the initial tweet. It can also be played at the current price of -120.
This Royals team isn’t one I’m actively rooting for to fade, but things continue to line up. Today I’m looking to support Twins rookie Joe Ryan. I believe we are getting a very favorable line given that two of his last three starts have been terrible. Well, those starts came against the new-look Padres and red-hot Dodgers. They were also on the road.
Ryan has put together an outstanding debut season for Minnesota, posting an 8-3 record with a sub-4.00 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His expected statistics also support his success. Ryan ranks in the 65th percentile in xERA, 68th percentile in BB%, and 75th percentile in xBA. His xSLG, average exit velocity, and slugging rate are all above average. He comes out of jams with an above-average K, tons of weak contact and a pop-up rate that’s more than double the league average. Ryan uses his four-seam fastball for nearly 60% of his pitches, and while that’s not ideal in my eyes, he has a great fastball. Just 91.8 MPH, his fastball still allows an xBA of just .187 with a -11 run value. While the velocity on that pitch won’t get you away on its own, his other pitches go 8-18 MPH slower – which helps keep the batters balanced. He shoots point shots at a 65.7% clip. When ahead in the count, Ryan’s top three pitches have xBAs of .181, .202 and .192.
Ryan has been fantastic at home this season with a 2.92 ERA, .184 OBA and 0.97 WHIP. He has allowed just five home runs in 49.1 home innings. This season Ryan has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 12 of 18 starts – including both outings against this Royals team. In those two starts, his combined stat line is 11.2 innings, 7 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts and 1 earned run. This is pretty solid.
In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, the Royals have a wRC+ of 92 while ranking 21st in wOBA, 20th in OPS and 24th in BB%. Sixteen of the last 25 right-handed starters to face Kansas City have allowed less than 3 earned runs, and I expect that to continue today with a nice comeback performance from Ryan.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) shot under 5.5 (-112)
Odds available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publication. Playable down to -130.
Freddy Peralta isn’t usually someone I look to knock when it comes to hitting beats. The 26-year-old right-hander is averaging 1.21 strikeouts per game and has a 28.3 K% total on the year. That said, there are plenty of angles to this matchup to make us believe we’re getting a generous prize.
Peralta allowed 5 earned runs in 3.0 innings of work against the Nationals on May 22nd. After that game he was placed on the 60-day IL with a lat injury. In his two starts since returning to the rotation, Peralta has thrown just 67 and 65 pitches. Those starts have resulted in a strikeout every 18.86 pitches, a far cry from his 14.61 rate for the season. He faced Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in those two starts, two offenses heavily prone to right-handed hitting. He is now tied at one game against the Dodgers, who have the 3rd lowest K% against right-handed hitters in the last 30 days. During that span, Los Angeles ranks best in MLB in OPS, ISO and wOBA in addition to boasting a wRC+ of 137. Peralta’s last start saw his lowest average fastball velocity of the season at just 91.7 MPH . That’s extremely concerning for someone who throws that pitch over 55% of the time.
Even when healthy, Peralta isn’t the most efficient pitcher. His 4.19 pitches per plate appearance would rank 4th highest in baseball if he has enough to qualify. Last season he ranked 17th highest in that category. At home this season, Peralta has struggled mightily. His home ERA of 6.26 is much worse than his 2.59 road ERA. Right-handed hitters are hitting .271 against Peralta this season, and Los Angeles has plenty of them that can hurt. Of the last 22 non-starting right-handed pitchers to face the Dodgers, 17 have been held under that 5.5 number. I have yet to see whether or not Peralta will see a significant increase in his pitch count, but if we get the news we want, that number will be long gone. With a smooth bullpen behind him and a scary matchup ahead of him, I think this game is worth the risk.
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