For the past 15 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at on Friday’s MLB roster.
Get MLB picks for each of today’s 15 games
Jordan Montgomery (STL) 4 hits/Cardinals ML (-110)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of the initial tweet. Playable down to -130.
Jordan Montgomery has been nothing short of fantastic since joining his new team at the trade deadline. The newest member of the Cardinals rotation is coming off a poor outing where he allowed 5 earned runs to the Braves’ potent offense, but had allowed just 1 earned run in his first 25.2 IP with the St . That includes a complete game shutout allowing 1 hit and striking out 7 against this Cubs lineup two starts ago.
In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching, the Cubs have a wRC+ of 68 which ranks 29th in MLB. During that span, they rank 29th in wOBA, 28th in OPS, 22nd in ISO and have a 24.1% K%. Of the last 25 left-handed starters to face Chicago, 19 of them have recorded 4 or more hits. The pitchers to record less than 4 hits were Patrick Corbin, Alex Wood, 2 innings of Julio Urias, Rich Hill, Ryan Weathers and Matthew Liberatore. Montgomery has a 3.28 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the season. His 93rd BB% keeps base runners away and he limits hard contact, ranking 63rd in slugging rate and 55th in average exit velocity . Jugpow has solid strikeout numbers this season, but his advanced numbers show he could soon see an increase in strikeout production.
Montgomery ranks in the 85th percentile in swinging percentage, 72nd percentile in called-strike-plus-walk percentage, 70th percentile in slugging percentage and 89th percentile in strikeout percentage . Monty leads the way in numbers with a 65.9% strikeout rate and against the Cubs’ free-swinging offense, that should lead to 4 or more strikeouts. The lefty has recorded 4 or more strikeouts in 21 of his 26 starts this season, including 27 strikeouts over his last 25.2 IP.
The Cardinals offense will face Adrian Sampson who they just tagged for 5 earned runs on 8 hits and 2 home runs 11 days ago. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, St. Louis ranks first in wOBA, OPS, SLG and ISO. Sampson is a good pitcher who limits walks and hard contact, but ranks in the 24th percentile or worse in xERA, xSLG, xBA and K%. He also doesn’t go very deep into games, having thrown 61 pitches in each of his last 2 starts and has 5 or fewer strikeouts in 7 of his 13 starts.
Both bullpens had off days yesterday, but over the past 30 days the Cubs rank 29th in xFIP and 20th in WHIP compared to the Cardinals who rank 10th in xFIP and 6th in WHIP. I’m looking for the Cardinals to improve to 6-0 with Montgomery on the mound and 11-6 against the Cubs this season with a win tonight.
Be sure to check out our complete Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis predictions. Louis Cardinals
Zach Davies (ARI) over 14.5 losses recorded (-130)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of the initial tweet. Up to -140 odds can be played.
This will be the second straight start that we are supporting Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zach Davies. The 29-year-old righty treated us well in his last outing when he allowed just 2 earned runs in 5.2 IP to the White Sox. It was his 5th straight start that lasted at least 5 innings, and 11th time in his last 12 starts. His expected stats aren’t the prettiest overall, but he does limit hard contact, ranking in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and 84th percentile in slugging rate. At home this season, Davies has allowed just 4 home runs in 47 IP with a 3.26 ERA and .236 OBA. In his last 11 starts, Davies has posted a combined 2.99 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and .189 OBA in 60 innings of work.
The Brewers offense has been extremely inconsistent of late as they have fallen well behind the Cardinals in the race for the NL Central. Against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, Milwaukee ranks very well in terms of their power numbers, but just 24th in AVG at .224. When on the road in the last month that number drops to .214. Of the last 14 non-starting right-handers to face Milwaukee, only one has allowed more than 3 runs while 11 have allowed 2 or fewer. I’m fully aware that this Brewers offense could have a power surge at any moment, but this lineup looks very favorable for a pitcher who limits hard contact, hits home runs better and is in good current shape. Of the right-hander’s last 13 non-starters, 8 of them have gone 5 or more innings against Milwaukee and I believe that will continue tonight.
Be sure to check out our complete Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
Alek Manoah (TOR) Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed/Miami Marlins Alternate Team Total U5.5 (-112)
Odds are available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publication. Up to -120 odds can be played.
Alek Manoah has been a workhorse for the Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff this season. The 2nd year pro has posted a 12-7 record with a 2.60 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 155.2 IP. Manoah ranks 55th percentile in xBA, 62nd percentile in xERA, 64th percentile in xSLG, and 74th percentile in BB%. He caps hard contact ranking in the 94th percentile in slugging rate, 77th percentile in average exit velocity and 74th percentile in slugging percentage. He has been dominant whether on the road or at home, both during the day and at night. One area of improvement in his game would be against left-handed hitters, but he absolutely shuts down hitters from the right side. RHB is hitting just .167 with a .489 OPS against Manoah this season.
Manoah has held opponents under 2.5 earned runs in 19 of his 25 starts, including 11 of 13 on the road. In the last 30 days against right-handed batters, the Pirates rank 8th in ground ball rate, 26th in wOBA, 26th in OPS, 22nd in ISO , 25th in SLG and have the 6th highest K%. All this to say that they are not a good hitting team. Of the last 25 right-handed starters to face Pittsburgh, 17 of them have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs. With the wind blowing from the outfield, there is projected to be a sharp drop in home production at PNC Park tonight. Toronto had the day off yesterday and with a fresh bullpen behind Manoah, he shouldn’t be pushed more than 6 innings.
The second half of this game is the Miami Marlins alternate team total under 5.5 runs. The juice on Manoah as a live play was a little out of reach for my liking, so I’m going to tone down the worst offense in the MLB once again. Miami has scored 5 or fewer runs in 49 of its last 53 games dating back to the first half of the season. They are utterly pathetic offensively and have struggled mightily against both left and right-handed shooters. Against righties in the last 30 days, Miami ranks dead last in wOBA, SLG and OPS, 24th in ISO and has a wRC+ of 74.
Charlie Morton has had an up-and-down year for the Braves this season, but the veteran should have no problem getting these Marlins bats fired up. Morton ranks 83rd in K% and 68th in xBA this season. His arsenal of 5 pitches should keep the young batsmen off balance as most of them are yet to face Morton for many bats. One place where Morton has had consistent success this season is at home where he has a .191 OBA and 3.07 ERA. I expect another below average offensive performance from Miami tonight.
Be sure to check out our full Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
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