“I can’t stand this bloody thing,” said newly minted Charles III, signing a visitor’s book in Northern Ireland on Tuesday. He was frustrated by a leaking pen, not the work of reigning. But at 73, his new job won’t be easy.
Charles I lost his head in 1649. Charles III is head of state in 15 realms, but looks set to lose some. Having a foreign monarch now seems a bit strange. But the tide flows slowly.
A quick chat on Tuesday with Michelle O’Niell, Northern Ireland’s first minister-designate, went politely. But O’Niell’s republican party, Sinn Féin, remains committed to seceding from the UK.
Charles’ great uncle, Lord Mountbatten, was killed by an IRA (Irish Republican Army) bomb in 1979. For those who love omens, an “unbelievable” fireball closed in on Northern Ireland on Wednesday night.
On his home turf, King Charles has made a fair start. A YouGov poll says 63 per cent expect him to be a “good king” – up from 32 per cent in May.
Barbados last year took the fast track. A vote by both houses of parliament re-appointed the respected governor-general Dame Sandra Mason as president last November. Nothing else changed.
But one opposition senator walked out, complaining there was no provision for a ‘No’ vote for Dame Sandra.
Any amendments to the Barbados constitution come later. Mia Mottley appointed a constitutional review commission in June.
Oddly enough, their Caribbean Premier League team, the Barbados Tridents, changed their name to the Barbados Royals in July last year.
Jamaica’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, told Britain’s Prince William in March, “We’re moving forward…with short notice.” But with their constitution, the order cannot be short.
Legislation must be drafted. Then it waits three months before it is debated and another three months before the Parliament vote. After another two to six months, there is a referendum.
In January, Holness established a Ministry of Legal and Constitutional Affairs, headed by former attorney general Marlene Malahoo-Forte. She says the process starts next year.
There is still ambivalence in Jamaica. Opinion polls now show 56 percent support for a republic – up from 44 percent ten years ago. This is a clear majority, but not an overwhelming one. One in four still want the monarchy.
Former Jamaican Prime Minister PJ Patterson regrets not seeing change in the 1990s. The devil was in the details. Opposition Leader Edward Seaga agreed in principle. But Patterson wanted the president to be elected by a two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament sitting together. Seaga wanted two-thirds of each house to sit separately. The opposition appoints eight of Jamaica’s 21 senators, so that would have given them veto power.
Bahamian Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis called for a republic the day after the Queen’s death. He needs a three-quarters majority in Parliament, then a referendum. He has 32 of the 39 seats, but Bahamian voters want to give governments a shot.
Belize introduced legislation for a People’s Constitutional Commission in July. The prime minister, John Briceño, said last Friday that he would consider all options. That doesn’t sound like a quick turnaround.
A day later, Antigua’s Prime Minister, Gaston Browne, said he too wanted a referendum within three years. Antigua requires a two-thirds majority in Parliament, then two-thirds in a referendum. This should be possible – although Antiguans voted to retain the Privy Council in 2018.
Oddly enough, Browne broke the news via British television channel ITV, not the Antiguan media – or an official announcement in Parliament.
The 2009 St Vincent’s Referendum lumped the removal of the Queen with other proposals; 56 percent voted “No”. In July of this year, Ralph Gonsalves suggested a new single-issue referendum, but only if he had the support of the opposition.
His party won 50.3 percent of the polls in the last election. He will not risk willingly.
And the others? St. Lucia Prime Minister Philip Pierre said Monday: “This is not a discussion we can have at this time.”
Grenada and St Kitts-Nevis, in June and August this year, elected new, fresh-faced governments. None of the manifestos of the winning party mentioned the monarchy.
And the great, white Commonwealth realms? Canada requires consent from all ten provinces. Australia’s rising Republicans lost a 1999 referendum by ten percent. The Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, has not “felt the appetite” for change.
Surprisingly, almost the first Commonwealth country to pass a referendum was apartheid South Africa, in 1960; African Republicans won a whites-only poll with just 52 percent.
And Great Britain? The new Prime Minister Liz Truss was a tough 19-year-old Republican. She now speaks differently. But YouGov reports that monarchists have fallen from 84 per cent of over-65s to just 40 per cent of those aged 18 to 24.
If anyone votes for him to go, King Charles, like his mother, will aim to leave on friendly terms. So it’s sad to see a streak of regret in some Republicans. Gabby, a generation-old calypsonian who is a cultural ambassador for Barbados, hailed the Queen’s passing with “Good Riddance to Rubbish”. A part-Trini academic in New York tweeted as she died: “May her pain be excruciating.”
The late queen is accused of historical crimes years, sometimes centuries, before her reign began.
From the new South Africa, Nelson Mandela as president created an easy, first-name relationship. This is probably a more productive model.
• Mark Wilson is an international journalist based in Port of Spain.
