The success of a “significant realignment” of Russian forces in Ukraine will be “key” to deciding the outcome of Kiev’s bid to drive them out of the area around Kherson, the UK defense ministry has said.
The Defense Ministry tweeted its latest intelligence update on Tuesday, after Ukraine on Monday claimed it had launched a counter-offensive to retake Kherson, which Russia captured at the start of its renewed offensive in Ukraine in February.
The Defense Ministry acknowledged Kiev’s move, saying “several brigades” of Ukraine’s armed forces had increased artillery fire in sectors across the country’s south. But it was “still not possible” to confirm the extent of their advances, the ministry said.
However, he noted that since early August Russia had made “significant efforts” to strengthen its troops on the west bank of the Dnipro River around Kherson. Most of the Russian forces are east of the river.
The latest Defense Intelligence Update on the situation in Ukraine – 30 August 2022
Find out more about the UK government’s response: https://t.co/q3wYzVuyKz
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— Ministry of Defense 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 30, 2022
“The 49th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District has most likely been augmented with components of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District,” the ministry wrote.
Most units around Kherson were probably understaffed and dependent on fragile supply lines, the ministry added.
“This integration of [the two district] units suggest a significant reorganization of Russian forces in Ukraine,” the ministry wrote.
There was a “realistic possibility” that Russia had “moved to rationalize” the command structure that contributed to its poor performance early in the invasion, the Ministry of Defense added.
The success of that realignment would be critical to the outcome of the Ukrainian offensive, the department concluded.
“If Ukraine manages to mount sustained offensive operations, the cohesion of this untested structure is likely to be a key factor in the resilience of Russian defenses in the south,” the department wrote.
