For the past 15 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Thursday’s MLB draft.
Be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games
Logan Gilbert (SEA) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125)
Odds are available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publication. Posted on Twitter and will track at -140 I played.
The first thing I noticed today when scanning the player stats on this slate was that Logan Gilbert has his strikeout line recorded at 15.5. While I have a clear bottom line on that number, one that he has cleaned up in 16 of his last 19 starts, it bothers me to see that number listed. We backed George Kirby to record 6 tackles against the same Tigers offense two nights ago. Kirby was unfortunately held to 5 Ks before being retired on 79 pitches. He pitched well, allowing 3 base runners and 0 runs, but with the game out of control, Seattle decided to cut short the outing of their young arm. Seattle’s 9-0 lead certainly had a role in that decision, but with this issue potentially applicable to their other young wing in Gilbert, I’ve decided to go a different route.
I expect Gilbert will likely go 5 innings of work, but the Tigers’ 5-inning first team total is set at a juicy 1.5 below. At -125 I believe we are getting a good price for Gilbert’s winning backer. There’s no guarantee he’ll make it past the 5th inning, and even if he does, this Tigers offense is one I like to take. Detroit in the last 30 days against right-handed hitters ranks 30th in hard contact%, 27th in HR/FB% and has the 6th highest slugging rate. They have a wRC+ of just 78 while ranking 28th in wOBA and OPS, 27th in ISO and 24th in BB%. Of the last 25 right-handed pitchers to face this lineup, 17 of them have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs.
Gilbert has some troubling advanced stats, but most of those concerns are alleviated when he faces Detroit. Gilbert ranks in the 67th percentile in walk rate this season and leads off the plate with a 63.8% strikeout rate. My main concerns with Gilbert are his high line drive velocity and his high usage of 4-seam fastballs. That said, the 25-year-old has produced very well for Seattle this season.
On the road this year, Gilbert has a 3.15 ERA with a .236 OBA in 15 starts. When pitching during the day, Gilbert has a 3.22 ERA and .225 OBA in 12 starts. He has stayed under that 2.5 earned run line in 15 of 26 starts, but 9 of 15 on the road. Detroit has yet to face Gilbert this season and that should benefit the pitcher, at least the first time through the order. The Tigers like to stack left-handed batters in their lineup when facing a right-handed pitcher. Thing is, Gilbert is a reverse split pitcher who has allowed a .213 OBA and .604 OPS to LHB this season. Coming off a strong start against Cleveland, I like the odds for another quality outing from Gilbert this afternoon.
Be sure to check out our complete Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers predictions
Johnny Cueto (CWS) over 17.5 innings (-140)
Odds are available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publication. Playable at that price.
Like Logan Gilbert, the bookies hung a recorded strikeout line on Johnny Cueto this morning that Cueto has cleaned up in 16 of 19 starts. This certainly surprised me, but, unlike Gilbert, I tried to find the reasoning behind this line. Cueto has been one of the few pleasant surprises for the disappointing White Sox this season. The 36-year-old right-hander has posted a 2.98 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season while amassing 123.2 IP in 19 starts. Cueto has thrown 1,301 pitches in his last 13 starts with no fewer than 90 pitches in any of those starts.
On the season, Cueto is averaging 4.92 pitches per outing that translates to 6 innings over 88.6 pitches. He doesn’t often walk at an 86th percentile walk rate. The main reason for his efficiency is that he is not trying to hit shots at his advanced age. Cueto has perfectly encapsulated the role of a contact pitcher who mixes speed and deliveries to keep hitters balanced. As a result, his barrel rate, average exit velocity, and slugging rate all rank in the 62nd percentile or better.
Cueto draws a ton of chases, but with the speed of his chase contact, the bottom line is a ton of weak contact. He has a 4.3% lower than average line drive rate with a league average strikeout rate. His 66.9% first pitch strike rate is deadly as his 5 pitch arsenal can use any pitch in any count. His sinker is his most used pitch at a 26.1% clip, while his fastball and 4-seam cutter are his least used pitches at 16.3% each.
Even when Cueto has allowed runs, Tony La Russa has chosen to let him struggle. Now he faces a Kansas City offense that ranks 24th in BB%, 22nd in wOBA, 23rd in OPS, 21st in SLG over the last 30 days against right-handed hitters and has a wRC+ of 85. During that span, the Royals rank 26th in line drive rate and 18th in home run fly ball ratio. This season, the Royals have the 2nd fewest pitches per plate appearance. Cueto ranks 9th best in that category among all qualifying pitchers this season. Lance Lynn pitched this lineup yesterday for 7 innings of 1 run ball. Cueto has a 2.08 ERA this season in 39 IP during the day and I’m looking for 6 more innings from the veteran tonight.
Read our Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox game!
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