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Read below to see the picks I’m looking at in Monday’s MLB draft.
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Luis Garcia (HOU) 5+ hits/Astros ML (-115)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication.
The Boston Red Sox were at a 42-31 mark this season. Since then they have lost 21 of 30 games, including 7 of 10 since the All-Star break. Now they begin a 7 game road trip flying to Houston. After falling to last place in the AL East and rumors swirling that they will be sellers at the MLB trade deadline tomorrow, Boston has very little motivation and their recent play is showing it.
The Red Sox have been awful defensively, recording the 8th most errors this season. They have already registered 11 in total since the start of the second half of the year. Against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, Boston is 27th in OBP, 24th in OPS, 20th in ISO, 24th in wOBA and has a wRC+ of just 79.
Boston is just 34-44 against right-handed pitchers this season. Luis Garcia has led Houston to wins in 12 of his 18 starts this season. His 70th percentile xERA and 76th percentile xBA back up his success to this point. He does a very good job of making batters miss with his 74th percentile strikeout rate, 65th percentile strikeout rate, and 84th percentile swing strike rate. Garcia is averaging 1.08 strikeouts/inning which ranks in the 63rd percentile. He’s also gone 5 or more innings in 15 of his last 16 starts, with 6 or more innings in 8 of those starts. Boston has the 4th highest K% vs. RHP in the last month at 26.9%.
Nathan Eovaldi is a pitcher I like a lot overall, but his 3 starts since returning from a lower back injury have labeled him as a current fader. His 13 IP since returning have resulted in a 2.08 WHIP, with 16 earned runs allowed on just 8 hits. The lack of hit production is what is alarming to me. He also had multiple hits in 2 of those 3 starts, something he had done just once before this season. On the year, Eovaldi ranks in the 35th percentile in xERA and 28th percentile in xBA. His 11th percentile barrel rate, 8th percentile slugging rate, and 13th percentile xSLG are extremely concerning against Houston. The Astros rank sixth in OPS, wOBA, SLG, ISO and have a 123 wRC+ over the last month against righties. They are also 43-25 against right-handed starters this season.
In terms of the bullpen, this is no matchup on paper with Boston ranking 22nd in xFIP and 27th in WHIP over the last 30 days. Houston in that same span ranks 4th in xFIP and WHIP. Ryan Pressley for Houston is likely to be unavailable after appearing 3 of 4 days. Even with that in mind, they have a deeper and quieter unit overall. I really like the price of this pairing.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
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