Lula leads Bolsonaro in Brazil election polls in political comeback

COMMENTARY

RIO DE JANEIRO – They camped outside the prison for 580 days. Every morning, they chanted loudly, “Good morning, president,” so that he could hear them.

When former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emerged from federal police headquarters in Curitiba on November 8, 2019, freed after more than 19 months in prison on corruption and money laundering charges, hundreds of waiting supporters erupted in cheers — and the lion of the Latin American left resumed the campaign for the office he held from 2003 to 2010.

“They didn’t lock a man up,” he declared that day. “They tried to kill an idea. But an idea cannot be destroyed.”

Now Lula, who was convicted in Brazil’s widespread Operation Car Wash scandal but freed when the Supreme Court ruled he had been denied due process, is on the verge of completing a stunning political revival. He won the first round of presidential elections here this month with more than 48 percent of the vote and polls show him ahead for a runoff on Sunday against President Jair Bolsonaro.

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Lula, who turns 77 on Thursday, holds a special place in Brazil’s history. His Workers’ Party, which he co-founded in 198 when the country was ruled by a military dictatorship, has won four of the nine presidential elections since the restoration of democracy in 1985. In his two terms, Lula himself presided over a period of prosperity, fueled by a global commodity boom, that lifted millions of Brazilians out of poverty. President Barack Obama once called him “the most popular politician on Earth.”

“He’s in every Brazilian,” said Duke University historian John French, author of “Lula and His Politics of Cunning: From Metalworker to Brazil’s President.” “Everyone knows his deep voice, his smile, his sense of humor.”

Beloved by millions of Brazilians and despised by millions more, Lula is usually described in hyperbolic terms: he is a champion of social justice and defender of the poor – or a corrupt left-wing radical who would lead the country to financial and moral bankruptcy .

“The flower is the people,” said Juno Rodrigues Silva, owner of Gijo’s restaurant in São Bernardo do Campo on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, his walls covered with photographs of the former president.

“He has a love for people and people adore him, and throughout the years he has remained the same person,” said Silva, who is not related to the former president.

Silva, who met Lula in 1969 when they were both metalworkers, was the only person welcomed to Lula’s apartment in São Bernardo on the eve of the 2002 elections in which he won the presidency. He had asked Silva to bring him beef chops and wine, according to Folha de S. Paulo newspaper.

Years later, they remain friends, Silva said.

“When he was president, there was no shortage of rice or beans. He wanted everyone to eat barbecue every day,” he said. “Today, people are abandoned, eating garbage, collecting scraps from garbage and buying only bones. This is what Bolsonaro serves the poor people of Brazil.”

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But for Deborah Guzman, Lula represents everything she rejects: same-sex marriage, communism and drugs. The 45-year-old owner of Brasilia cited false claims on social media that Lula planned to legalize drugs and persecute or ban religion. (His campaign has denied any such plans.)

Guzman also pointed to corruption in Lula’s administration and others in the Workers’ Party. “Only in Brazil can we consider the re-election of a man who was in prison and who wants to return this country to Venezuela,” she said. She said she does not believe the overturning of his conviction means he is not guilty.

Lula has campaigned since he was released from prison three years ago to restore himself as Brazil’s dominant political figure, giving speeches, holding rallies and forging alliances in the Brazilian Congress. Legions of supporters have rejoiced that the man they insist was the victim of a right-wing political ambush is back.

Lula has presented himself to voters as the one who will restore stability after nearly four chaotic and isolating years of Bolsonaro. He promises to address hunger and homelessness. He has pledged to raise taxes on the wealthy, raise the minimum wage and expand social spending to lift millions of people out of poverty. He has vowed to make the environment a priority by cracking down on illegal mining and other crimes in the Amazon and reversing Bolsonaro-era policies that have weakened protections and enabled increasing deforestation.

But he could not legally run for office until the Supreme Court overturned his conviction last year. The court ruled that the judge had been biased against Lula.

The Operation Car Wash investigation into bribery and corruption has ensnared many politicians and business leaders in Brazil and throughout Latin America. Lula was convicted of accepting more than $1 million in bribes in the form of a beachfront condo. He denied that the property was his.

For many Brazilians, Lula is still a thief who was freed on a technicality, not because of his innocence. The revelations left him and the Workers’ Party weakened and fueled mass protests that led to the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff in 2016.

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Yet Lula’s message of social mobility and empowerment continues to resonate with millions in a country increasingly marked by growing inequality.

He began his political career as a metalworkers’ union leader in the 1970s and 1980s, when he helped organize mass strikes in opposition to the dictatorship.

French said Lula’s resilience, charisma and ability to bring people together enabled him to challenge the authoritarian state, cement his influence and pave his way to the presidency.

“His ability to talk, not to people, and to create shared political understanding was essential to his political triumphs,” he said.

But it’s Lula’s story—he was born to illiterate parents, dropped out of school after the fifth grade, and shined shoes as a child, but became a skilled metalworker, a powerful union leader, and eventually president. – which for many Brazilians embodies the nation’s hopes and dreams: striving against all odds, overcoming crisis after crisis, ever growing.

As Brazil’s first working-class president, Lula made the struggles of the poor central to his government; he fostered social initiatives credited with lifting millions of people out of poverty while enabling more low-income and Afro-Brazilian students to access higher education. He left office with an approval rating of over 85 percent.

“Not only did he put three meals a day on the plates of millions of poor people, but they were then able to buy cars, get a loan for a house, which strengthened the economy even more,” said journalist Fernando Morais. author of the biography “Lula”.

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Years after Lula left office, many Brazilians credit his social and economic policies for transforming their lives. Jorge Freire, born into a poor Afro-Brazilian family, said Lula’s quota programs for underserved students enabled him to attend university.

“I am a fruit of Lula,” said Freire, a 39-year-old cultural events producer. “He’s the reason I’m middle class now,” he said.

Critics say Lula did little to dismantle the power structures that allowed systemic corruption to persist, structures from which they say he benefited. They credit much of his success to an accident of timing: His administration coincided with a regional commodity boom that spurred economic development and helped pay for social programs.

After the first round of this year’s elections on October 2, Lula was supported by two key politicians: Simone Tebet, who finished third in the first round with 4 percent of the vote, and former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a figure with influence. in business circles who said he would vote for Lula in the name of “a history of struggle for democracy and social inclusion”.

Gabriela Sá Pessoa in São Paulo contributed to this report.

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