Sometimes, it’s hard to tell if someone is smart as a fox or dumb as a rock.
Like when you tell the girl’s boyfriend to be home by 10:15 and he says, “OK, mid-October. Excellent.”
Here I am looking at the Western Conference. It’s easy to fall in love with some teams. You can make a case for the LA Clippers, Phoenix, Denver and, of course, Golden State. Minnesota, Memphis, Mavericks, Lakers and maybe even Sacramento could easily qualify as trendy picks.
And yet, you can find reason to doubt all of those teams.
But since the season will be here in about a week, here are my preseason picks for the Western Conference — again, with the caveat that this could be pure genius or the most idiotic predictions of all time.
Memphis will finish with the best record in the West. How so? I’m glad you asked. This remains a young, growing team. They value the regular season a little more than, say, a Warriors team that only cares about the playoffs, or a Clippers team that will rest a lot of players during the regular season but must be very tough in playoffs.
Memphis, with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr and the rest of the gang, will be headlining the West in April. And it probably won’t take the 56 wins they finished with last season to get there.
The rest of the top four: Phoenix, Golden State, LA Clippers. These three teams have the most veteran talent, and that alone will keep them in the home-field-advantage conversation.
After that, I’ll take Minnesota, Denver, Mavericks and Sacramento to round out the top eight.
The Mavericks will have to figure things out as they go this season. Christian Wood’s comfort will be the big priority and one of Luka Doncic’s priorities.
After that, throw the Lakers, New Orleans, Portland, and anyone else you want into a hat and pick a name. They can round out the top-10 and get into the playoffs.
And with that, here’s this week’s Mail-It-In Q&A session.
Question of the week: Who is Dallas’ second best player? Joche via Twitter.
Sefko: This would seem to be a question with an obvious answer. But it’s not as simple as saying that Spencer Dinwiddie is number 2 behind Luka Doncic. Too often, we equate scoring with the rating a player deserves. And Dinwiddie does other things, too. He can be a distributor of the ball when needed. And he’s a good defender. But the other contenders for this designation also have strong cases. Dorian Finney-Smith is the best defender on the team and one of the most reliable 3-point shooters. He rarely misses games and is a hero in the dressing room. When healthy, Tim Hardaway Jr. may have the second best skill on the team. Maxi Kleber does a little bit of everything. But if you want my immortal answer to that, it has to be Christian Wood. His return will be more important to this team than any other asset anyone can bring to the table besides Luka. And Wood can score. If he’s not the second best player on this team, then maybe something has gone wrong. Either that, or Dinwiddie has regained the level of stardom he was playing at before his knee injury, which would be a great thing for the Mavericks.
Q: Josh Green’s likely stat line for the season? I say, 12 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists and 1.7 steals. This could be his breakout year. Brad M. via Twitter.
Sefko: That might be a little ambitious for a guy entering his third season and averaging just 4 points (and 14 minutes) in his first two. This should be a new season for the Australian athlete. I agree with that. But I’m thinking more of eight points and two or three rebounds per game, with his minutes going up to 18 or so. He is not the sixth man of this team. Or the seventh. His minutes will have to be earned. I expect Green to be grouped with guys like Davis Bertans and Dwight Powell and Jason Kidd will go with whoever has the hot hand on a given night.
Q: What is a successful season for Jaden Hardy? Sergio I. via Twitter.
Sefko: If he leads the Texas Legends to the playoffs, then it’s a great season. Hardy will spend plenty of time with the Mavericks. But he will need playing time, and that will most likely come in Frisco with the G-League Legends. That’s not a bad thing for a 20-year-old rookie. You’ve heard me talk in the past that new players need to pass the G-League eye test. If you can’t dominate that level of competition, you’re probably not quite ready to step up to a significant role in the NBA. Let’s allow this kid to learn, make mistakes, and grow into his talent, which, by the way, is considerable. But you can’t skip steps. Throwing young, energetic and impressive players to the wolves can have an undesirable impact if you’re not careful.
Pquestion: Conley, Clarkson and Vanderbilt for Hardaway, Ntilikina, Bertans, Green, a lottery-protected first-rounder and a second-rounder? DomiNos, via Twitter.
Sefko: No thanks. First, I doubt you’re getting Jarred Vanderbilt in any deal. Utah’s rebuild and the big man fits everything they’re trying to do. Also, do you really want Mike Conley’s $47 million over the next two years, knowing how he looked in the playoff series against the Mavericks? To be honest, I’m not sure either team would, even if the Mavericks could magically come away with some assets to trade.
Q: Is the currently constructed team as good as last year’s team? Or should we set our expectations at a more moderate level (7th– or 8th-what) level? TodoMavs via Twitter.
Sefko: For decades, the motto has been the same in the NBA. If you’re not improving, you’ll slide down the pecking order. What we don’t know for sure is whether the Mavericks got better this year or not. Christian Wood and JaVale McGee will help. So will a Tim Hardaway Jr. healthy, but Jalen Brunson was a beast. Without him, the Mavericks probably won’t get out of the first round of the playoffs. So until we know more about this team’s personality and talent, we have to take on this battle cry: We’re No. 6. Finish in the top six in the Western Conference, avoid the playoffs, and make the playoffs. . That would make for a satisfying regular season.
Q: Are fans sleeping at Christian Wood? Like they did when we brought Tyson Chandler back in the day? Jimmy J. via Twitter.
Sefko: Hope. When the Mavericks got Chandler, they were getting damaged goods. At least that’s what the rest of the NBA thought. But they had inside information from track and field coach Casey Smith, who was involved with Chandler’s U.S. national team at the 2010 World Championships. Because of his injury past, it was forgivable if fans weren’t sold on Chandler. That quickly changed when he got here. But with Wood, there’s no guesswork except to hope he wasn’t putting up good numbers for a bad team simply because someone has to. Wood will be fine, especially if he averages double-digit rebounds. For me, this is more important than the score. But to the point of your question, I don’t think people are sleeping in Dru. They expect a lot from him and rightly so. He’s going to get a big contract this year and if he earns it, the Mavericks will be a much better team because of it.
TWITTER: @Esefko
