For the past 13 months, I’ve been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Thursday’s MLB draft.
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Jose Urquidy (HOU) under 4.5 shots (+106)
Odds available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publication.
Let me start with the areas of concern. Jose Urquidy has much better splits at home than on the road in terms of K/IP. That being said, he has drawn some favorable matches at home where he was able to put up big numbers. The Mariners have also allowed 4 right-handed starters to pass that number. Two of them landed exactly 5 Ks and the others were named Jon Gray and Justin Verlander. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s discuss why I love this show.
The Mariners have already seen Urquidy 4 times this season. He’s under that number in all 4 starts with a combined 12 Ks in 19 IP. In those 19 IP, he has allowed 31 hits, 9 walks and 16 earned runs. Even in his last start which came against Seattle, Urquidy pitched well with 6 innings of 1 ball but only 3 strikeouts. He should see a very similar lineup today. On the season, Urquidy ranks 22nd in K% and 21st in slugging percentage. His strikeout rate is in the 59th percentile, but the strikeout rate he allows is 5.8% higher than average. In strikeout rate plus whiffs, he ranks just 21st percentile.
Urquidy hits hard with a 16th percentile slugging rate, 15th percentile average exit velocity, and 16th percentile barrel rate. His XBA is in the 16th percentile along with a 19th percentile xERA. He sits in the 8th percentile in xSLG and his most used pitch is the worst. His fastball is 93.6 mph and is used on 54.1% of his pitches. In that field, he allows a .299 xBA and .583 xSLG. Urquidy owns just one pitch with a higher than 20% strikeout percentage, and that’s the curveball he uses on just 12.5% of his pitches. The Mariners have the 5th-highest zone contact rate, 6th-lowest strikeout rate, and 11th-lowest overall. Jose is under this line to start 12/18 this season, and I like to grab plus money for this number.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
Detroit Tigers F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-120)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication.
I know, the Tigers are a very bad baseball team. It’s never fun to target a team that’s 40-59 on the season, but they might as well be dirt cheap teams. In the last 30 days, Detroit has quietly done the left-handed hitting. During that span, they rank 3rd in AVG, 5th in OBP, 8th in SLG, 5th in OPS and have a wRC+ of 131, which ranks 5th higher. Since June 1, the Tigers have faced 14 starting left-handed pitchers. Eleven of those starters have allowed 2 or more runs in the first 5 innings with 8 of them allowing 3 or more. The only pitchers to allow less than 2 runs in the first 5 innings were Carlos Rodon, Alex Wood and Martin Perez.
Yusei Kikuchi will make his first start since July 5th after a stint in IL. We can expect to see some rust, and his pre-injury shape wasn’t great either. Kikuchi ranks in the top percentile in barrel rate, average exit velocity, slugging rate and xERA. His XSLG is in the 4th percentile with a 3rd walk rate and 27th xBA percentile. Kikuchi only has a 55.9% first strike rate, which is 5.4% below average. When behind in the numbers, hitters have xBAs of .281, .293 and .317 in his 3 main pitches. XSLG on those pitches in this scenario are .489, .541 and .745. Kikuchi strikes, but his main strike areas are also the ones that get hit the most. In 8 of his last 9 starts before getting hurt, Kikuchi allowed 2 or more runs in the first 5 innings.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays
Alex Wood (SFG) under 17.5 losses recorded (-135)
Odds are available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publication.
Alex Wood enters this game clearing the streak in just 3 of his 19 starts this season. He’s a good pitcher who limits walks and gives his team a chance to win, but there are a few areas in his game that I see value in offensively. Wood ranks 10th highest among 114 qualifying pitchers in walks at the plate. His 4.11 P/PA hinders his ability to go deep into games as he averages about 85 pitches per start. Wood ranks just 41st percentile in xBA and 44th percentile in hard hitting rate. At home this season he is allowing a .291 OBA and is under in 6 of 8 starts. He’s also seen an increase in strikeout production recently, which is leading to longer counts.
The Cubs have hit very well against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days. During that span they have a wRC+ of 120 while ranking 3rd in ISO and 6th in SLG. 9 of the last 14 left-handed starters to face them have gone under that number. The Cubs are striking out at a 26.5% strikeout rate during this stretch, and that has actually boosted their P/PA to a point above average.
The Giants have gotten 6 and 6.1 IP from Rodon and Webb their last two games. As a result, the team hasn’t had to start anyone in both of those games and should rest well as a unit. If Wood runs into any trouble, the Giants shouldn’t extend him.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants
Triston McKenzie (CLE) under 5.5 shots allowed (+110)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication.
Triston McKenzie is quickly becoming one of my favorite pitchers in the league to watch. The 24-year-old right-hander features a 3-step arsenal, each serving a purpose. He throws his fastball 92.4 mph for more than half of his pitches, but has 12 inches of vertical run and a -8 run value on that pitch this season which is very good. His slider hits 5 mph and has a 27.1% slugging rate. In my opinion, the curveball is his best pitch and what makes him stand out. His curveball jumps below 80 mph and makes his fastball look faster out of the hand (along with his long arms). His curveball has a 44.4% slugging rate, .259 xSLG and .157 xBA.
Overall, McKenzie doesn’t allow many hits with just 76 hits in 107 innings. His 62nd xBA percentage supports the fact that he has allowed fewer than 6 hits in 14 of his 18 starts this season. In his last 4 starts spanning 26.2 IP, McKenzie has allowed 13 hits and 1 run with 27 strikeouts. That includes a 7 IP gem against the Yankees allowing 0 runs on 1 hit. One small change he has made during that stretch is to rely more on his breaking balls, and I agree with that adjustment.
The Red Sox are a depleted team playing uninspired baseball. Against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, Boston ranks 28th in BB%, 24th in AVG, 22nd in SLG, 26th in wOBA and has a wRC+ of just 83. They are also featured in the third highest clip. 10 of the last 14 right-handed starters to face Boston have gone below this 5.5 line.
An added element to this show worth considering is the weather in Boston. From what I’ve been able to gather, there’s a legitimate chance of rain mid-game and even a delay that certainly wouldn’t hurt a sub. I love grabbing this issue with cash plus.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox
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