For the past 13 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the props I’m looking at in Saturday’s MLB draft.
Mitch Keller (PIT) over 4.5 goals (-115)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication.
Mitch Keller is a pitcher that has grown on me as time goes on. As a Pirates fan I have watched him for years, but this season is the first in which he has impressed. The 2014 second-round pick has always been a top-spinning pitcher with plus speed and movement. His issues stemmed from predictability (57% or higher 4-seam fastball usage), control (9.8% career walk rate), and strikeouts that were usually topped by some type of extra base hit. This season Keller has made some adjustments and is now showing off his best pitches.
His 34.4% 4-seam fastball usage this season is nearly 25% below his career high. As a result, his xBA in that field is just .218 compared to .282 last year. Keller has always had a good slider, and this season he has a 29.3% slugging rate on that pitch. One change he has made to his slider in the middle of the season is that he is throwing it around 82 MPH now instead of 86 MPH or more. This has added a larger gap in MPH between his slider and his fastball which is 96. This is helping to keep the strikeouts balanced. Keller has added a sinker this season and done two big things to his game. First, there’s his highest fielding percentage of any pitch at 29.7%. Second, Keller is working more in the zone, which has kept more balls in the park and led to a career-high ground ball rate.
Those adjustments are allowing Keller to go deeper into games, having logged 6.0 or more IP in 6 of his last 9 starts. He has allowed just 4 earned runs and 2 walks on 18 hits over his last 3 starts. The Phillies have let 20 of their last 25 RHPs go for 17 or more outs. This is where Keller’s line is located today. The Phillies offense can be dangerous, but over the past 30 days they have the 2nd lowest BB% and rank 20th in wOBA. Before Zach Thompson had just 4 Ks yesterday, 8 right handed starters had topped that line against the Phillies.
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