All tracks are not created equal. God bless him, but Pocono is Pocono. The only way to make this race fun is to kill the stages. That won’t happen and probably won’t work. Other than wearing a special sponsor’s steel cylinders, the only way to enjoy Pocono is to get in on the action on DraftKings.
As always, trust the spreadsheet, but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 at Pocono, which begins Sunday, July 24 at 3:00 PM ET.
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There is a chance that Pocono will be a good race, just a chance. The Next Gen car underperformed at New Hampshire and there was hope earlier in the week that the Magic Mile could rekindle the magic from the 2021 race. However, by the time the Group A practice session ended, all hope was lost. The cars looked like speedboats traveling straight. This has been a common sight in 2022. The rears have been lowered as low as possible to reduce drag and use the downforce created by the new rear diffuser. This leaves the nose of the car pointing up. This is good on a Q run or practice lap away from traffic. Racing is another story. The front high-sky nose is sensitive to polluted air. The car pushes hard (understeer) and the only way to turn the front end is to slow down. It is difficult to pass cars while slowing down.
Fast forward to Pocono. Most likely, the configurations will be the same. Lowering the rear end will free up the car and help it turn into flat corners at high speed. This will also remove the spoiler and reduce drag on the extremely long and boring Pocono straights. High speeds sound good, but these cars will be terrible in traffic and passing will be difficult. This will most likely make for bad races, but there is always a chance for chaos and strategy. Pocono looks ripe for chaos.
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Pocono Tire Test
Goodyear tested a tire at Pocono that drops rapidly. Tire management not only opens the door to passing, but more importantly, it opens the door to wrecks. As the saying goes, care begets care. The potential high-wear tire isn’t the only spoiler this Sunday. The Pocono track has aged. It is worn and bumpy. This does not bode well for the next-generation car that relies on ground effect to reduce downforce. It’s not really good when the backends sit down as much as possible. When a car comes out of the tunnel curve, it is gone. This was a frequent occurrence in earlier cars, and when they ran alone. Running abreast on the tunnel bend is a risky proposition, but it has become more common. The results have not improved much.
This race doesn’t have to be a wrecking fest to open the door for long shots. The Pocono needs just enough care. This race will have more than enough caution.
Pocono Tire Tester
Three drivers participated in the Pocono tire test in May. This test could be the most significant test of the season. It’s Pocono, so the test doesn’t really matter, but from a Pocono win perspective, it does.
This is a long race track. The internship is short. How many practice laps will the drivers log on Saturday? This race will be played very much like a race of the time of COVID. Without practice, the teams guessed the setup through the simulator. These three teams don’t have to guess. Crew chiefs are closer to the winning setup and drivers have a better feel for the next-generation car on this unique race track.
Christopher Bell +1500
Before his win last week, Bell said he had the fastest car in the JGR stable. He put his money where his mouth was and proved it at his best. Before the New Hampshire win, Bell was on a roll. Take out the road courses and the cobbled track at Atlanta, and he had a top-10 finish in six straight races. Bell’s best finish at Pocono was fourth in the first race at Pocono in 2020. This was the first of two “no practice, guess the placement” races.
Aric Almirola +2500
Pocono wasn’t great for Almirola last season, but he finished third and fifth in 2020 by two strokes. His team went into that weekend guessing like everyone else and came out on top. This Sunday, everyone will be guessing again, but not Almirola. He has a very good chance of qualifying near the front because of the knowledge gained through testing. The transition will be difficult, so Almirola should be able to hold track position. From a possible top 10 spot, Almirola won’t need a Hail Mary strategy to win. A subtle move may be enough to visit Victory Lane.
Daniel Suarez +3000
First of all, Suarez must have a perfect race. He did it in Sonoma, so it’s possible. Suarez finally has a car comparable to the one he drove for JGR and SHR, but now he has a lot more experience. After winning the Xfinity Series championship and the sudden retirement of Carl Edwards, Suarez was rushed into the Cup Series. It took a while, but Suarez finally seems to belong. It will take a perfect race, a great car and a little luck, but those aren’t out of the question this weekend at Pocono. In 2018, Suarez finished second for JGR at Pocono.
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Contest Winner – M&M 400 Fan Rating
Joey Logano +1200
Crew chief Paul Wolfe has won at Pocono in the past. He won through strategy at Pocono. More importantly, Wolfe built a fast race car at Gateway (WWT). That track has flat climbs and long straight stretches just like Pocono. The same can be said for New Hampshire, and Team Penske completely lost organization across the board last week. The good news was that through practice and qualifying, it was clear that Logano and Ryan Blaney would not be competing in New Hampshire. Practice will be limited and less revealing this week, but should again give a good look at what Logano has in store.
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