(Opinion) The last heated phase of the New Cold War in Eastern Europe will inevitably de-escalate over time, after which the center of global tensions will shift to East Asia as the NATO-led by the US trying to repeat its aggressive containment policy against China.
The outcome of the first mentioned proxy war between Golden Billion and Global South in Ukraine will significantly affect the course of the second war between them over Taiwan, which everyone should expect to happen sometime in the near future.
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The New Cold War between the Golden Billion West led by the US and the Global South led by BRICS and the SCO has so far been kinetically fought by proxy by the former against the latter’s Russian member, which also happens to has since become the de facto leader. of the Global Revolutionary Movement.
Washington targeted Moscow ahead of Beijing because it is considered the so-called “weakest link” between the two, which should be contained rather than “Balkanized” to preserve unipolarity.
However, the priority the US has given Russia at this point does not mean it is ignoring the People’s Republic.
America is accelerating its conventional military efforts to contain China, as evidenced by NATO’s gradual expansion in the Asia-Pacific, as Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov mentioned in his speech at Sunday’s East Asia Summit in Cambodia.
According to the chief diplomat of this newly restored world power, this process is already in progress.
He warned how the Anglo-American members of NATO foresee the informal inclusion of Japan and New Zealand in their AUKUS alliance with Australia.
The purpose behind this is to strengthen their collective anti-Chinese containment capabilities ahead of what is likely to be an eventual provocation of the security dilemma as Ukrainians against Beijing via Taiwan.
The conventional military base is being laid to replicate the scenario of Eastern Europe in East Asia.
With this in mind, it can be confidently predicted that the next heated phase of the New Cold War over the direction of the global systemic transition will inevitably take place in that part of the supercontinent.
This does not mean that it is imminent as some time may still be needed to better coordinate the respective efforts of the Golden Billion together with their regional vassals, the latter may also include the Philippines and South Korea, but only that the writing is already. clearly on the wall.
The all-out pressure that China would be put under in that scenario would likely lead to one of two outcomes.
It will either forcefully defend national security red lines in the region, as Russia did in Ukraine during its ongoing special operation, or it will unilaterally concede some of these same interests through a partial recalibration of its strategy. its great with the aim towards detente. .
There is no middle ground between the two, because the choice is zero-sum for China.
Therefore, its leadership will have to weigh the pros and cons of each scenario, given the exposure of its economy to the maximum pressure armed sanctions that the Golden Billion is expected to impose in parallel with their planned provocation of the dilemma of security in Taiwan.
The People’s Republic announced the new dual traffic development policy two years ago; however, this, in hindsight, could have been a preventative measure to soften the economic blow such a scenario could have.
If this is the case, which is credible enough to speculate considering the related military-political reforms initiated by President Xi during his first two terms in office (including rumored purges of elites considered very friendly with the West), then China can well protect its security interests.
It is still too early to say what it will do, especially since it remains unclear exactly what provocation of Taiwan’s security dilemma will occur.
However, this result would be best for multipolarity.
Unilaterally dropping some of Taiwan’s national security red lines in favor of buying time and temporarily easing the inevitable economic pressure on it could risk setting the People’s Republic on a trajectory where capitulation may be impossible to prevent its ultimate strategic.
There is no doubt that President Xi, the CPC and the PLA are well aware of this possibility, so it is expected that they will, at the very least, seriously mount a strong defense against NATO.
The last heated phase of the new Cold War in Eastern Europe will inevitably de-escalate over time, after which the center of global tensions will shift to East Asia as the US-led NATO- it is trying to repeat its aggressive control policy against China.
The outcome of the aforementioned proxy war between the Golden Billion and the Global South in Ukraine will significantly affect the course of the second war between them over Taiwan, which everyone should expect to happen sometime in the near future.
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