By Benjamin Forgat
(Opinion) Brazilian elections are in their final month and will be held on October 2nd.
And officially, everyone asks only one question: will the socialist Lula da Silva become president in the first round of voting or in the second?
There is no other version, neither in the local or foreign media nor in the polls.
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For more than a year, these institutions have hammered into Brazilians’ heads, first monthly, then weekly, and finally almost daily, that Lula da Silva will win.
Through repetition, it has become the “Brazilian truth” – at least the visible one.
BOLSONARO IS GROWING
And now this.
The conservative-religious Bolsonaro has steadily gained ground in the critical southeast region, home to some 90 million Brazilians.
According to the latest results, he has passed Lula da Silva by 1% for the first time in the most critical Brazilian state, São Paulo, where 46 million people live.
Both are tied in Rio de Janeiro, the country’s second most important state.
In the third most important Minas Gerais, traditionally a pace state, he is now getting dangerously close to his opponent.
The south votes for Bolsonaro, and so does most of the center-west.
The only crucial region where Lula da Silva still has a clear lead is the northeast, with Bahia as the most significant state.
It is characterized by poor infrastructure, low levels of education and insufficient investment, and for years was largely in the hands of the left.
But even there, Bolsonaro is reaching.
Brazil’s aid (survival aid) generously given by its government is used by almost 50% of ‘Nordestinos’.
Given this steady flow of cash, how many of these traditional leftist voters might be hitting the “Bolsonaro” button at the electronic ballot box this time?
If there are too many, Lula da Silva could be in hot water.
The press, polls and power boldly deny and mock the scenario, but it is pure arithmetic.
That’s why the big guns are being brought in now, and collusion between presidential candidates is also likely to be forged.
Despite all the competition, the other presidential candidates have one thing in common: their deep hatred for Bolsonaro. And apart from Lula da Silva, no one has a chance to win anyway.
In an emergency, the devil eats flies.
ELECTRONIC VOTING BOXES
What is more important now than ever is that purely electronic ballot boxes function correctly and are not tampered with.
Therefore, the Bolsonaro government wants to call in the army to ensure this.
Finally, since the advent of social media, we all know how fake, untruthful and manipulative the digital world is.
You can manipulate everything – likes, followers, reposts, top Google rankings, mentions and much more.
Therefore, purely electronic votes are a risk factor. Recall the ongoing controversy in the US on this topic.
This is probably one of the main reasons that Bolsonaro fought like a lion to have a printed ballot for every electronic vote.
This is the only way to check if the right candidate has received the votes in case of doubt.
Why was there and still is opposition to this?
How can it be against more security in such a crucial matter as the presidential election?
However, court cases and investigations are pending against Bolsonaro for “attacking the Brazilian electoral system without evidence” with his insistence on printed ballots, which is considered “anti-democratic behavior” by the establishment.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Attack is the best defense because it practically always works.
And so it is that the left has yet to answer why they oppose more security at the polls, and probably never will.
FALSE FLAGS
And then there is the growing risk in election campaigns of active character assassinations and fake operations.
For example, a few days ago, in the deep interior of the state of Mato Grosso, one agricultural worker allegedly killed another.
There is talk of knives and axes, a freak show.
Something common in Brazil, whose homicide rate has dropped significantly in recent years but is still among the highest in the world.
If it weren’t for the story told by the killer: He, the perpetrator, is a Bolsonarian and the other, the victim, was a Lulista.
And to top it all, the “convinced” Bolsonarista admitted to killing Lulista quite voluntarily and without need, citing “political changes” as the reason.
A murderer who voluntarily reports to the police a murder that no one witnessed?
Who should believe this?
They say there was video footage, but it was destroyed.
To Poder360 media, the delegate in charge explained that a witness, allegedly the killer’s friend, said in a statement that he had seen the video on his mobile phone before the content was deleted.
Let this sink in.
The “friend” betrays the murderer to confirm the latter’s confession, so that the police really believe the perpetrator that he killed Lulista.
Too crazy?
Now, police will make a court application to access the device with the allegedly deleted footage.
The story created a news cycle at just the right time.
It took less than 12 hours and all fingers pointed to Bolsonaro. His fault.
“The family of the murdered Lulista is a victim of the Bolsonaro genocide,” said Lula da Silva.
The campaign of Ciro Gomes, another presidential candidate, suddenly announced that another Bolsonaro, also armed, had attempted to attack him.
It’s easy to see where this is going; we’ll soon know if people take the bait.
Is Lula da Silva guilty when a Lulista commits a crime, or Cristina Kirchner when a Kirchnerist goes off the rails?
(Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians sang the ‘Our Father’ prayer at the celebration with Bolsonaro)
So why should Bolsonaro be responsible when a Bolsonarista goes crazy?
The opposition is playing with fire.
They are fueling political aggression and further antagonizing political camps.
What about Bolsonaro?
What everyone could see and experience on September 7, the 200th anniversary of independence, was this:
Brasilia, Rio and other capitals have not seen a crowd as large as the one that paid tribute to Bolsonaro on September 7 in a long time.
Some say it was the biggest crowd ever seen in Brazil.
People came to celebrate, but they also came to stay with Bolsonaro.
As the power hates the man, he is loved and famous by the people.
Do people love and celebrate tyrants and dictators? Or do they celebrate men they can identify with?
Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians sang the ‘Our Father’ prayer in celebration with Bolsonaro because that is what Bolsonarism is all about.
God, Fatherland and Family.
What is completely lost in all the name-calling is that the current president is a deeply religious man.
Prayer is second nature to him and he asks God for strength every day.
This is one of the reasons why many of Brazil’s fast-growing evangelicals are on the side of the current president.
They see in him the humility that they themselves preach and practice.
And anyone who has seen the faithfulness of evangelicals knows that if Bolsonaro’s movement was really made up mostly of right-wing extremists, thugs, fanatics, murderers, violent neo-Nazis and the like, as the opposition suggests and in fact orchestrates, that religious group would immediately leave the president.
Like it or not, Bolsonaro has built a following unlike anyone else in the world.
And whoever wins the October election, Bolsonarism is here to stay.
No one who has witnessed and seen the life of the September 7 crowds can doubt it.
The Brazilian establishment and the left must learn to deal with this reality. It is the only true grassroots movement that exists in Brazil today.
And it gets stronger every day.
The desire to suppress or ignore it can only lead to one thing: Chaos.
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