(Opinion) The Polish-German geostrategic rivalry for influence over Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which is an important proxy theater for their larger rivalry over the future of the EU as a whole, has returned as a result of the US The provoked phase of the conflict in Ukraine.
Its seeds had already been sown several years earlier, however, as Germany joined with the US to wage a joint hybrid war on Poland aimed at punishing its ruling Law and Justice party (PiS for short). its Polish) for its conservative-nationalist values that have been proven to be mostly superficial due to its attitude towards refugees.
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Since then, the US has jumped ship from that particular Hybrid War campaign for the most part, now quietly siding with Poland in its Hybrid War against Germany.
Washington and Warsaw aim to bankrupt Berlin as they trick its leaders into supporting counterproductive anti-Russian sanctions that eliminate the economic dimension of its strategic autonomy and thus perpetuate America’s recently restored hegemony over Europe.
Poland believes this is the only way to stop the imminent end of Germany’s centuries-old plot to seize control of the EU.
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki hinted very strongly to the German media during his exclusive interview with Der Spiegel that Warsaw is indeed challenging Berlin across Europe, which is one of the most high-profile confirmations yet of this newly restored historic line.
As for the argument that the Polish-German geostrategic rivalry really exists, it should be noted that Morawiecki contrasted his country’s immediate and comprehensive support for Kiev with its neighbor’s relatively slower and partial assistance.
According to him, “Berlin’s reluctance, its inaction, seriously calls into question the value of the alliance with Germany. And we’re not the only ones saying that. I am also hearing this from many other heads of government in Europe.”
This hints that many CEE leaders are criticizing Germany behind Berlin’s wings, suggesting that they are all conspiring to varying degrees to collectively expand their influence at the expense of this unofficial EU leader.
It was predictable that Poland would seek hegemony over the “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) states and is making progress.
Despite some significant setbacks in the de facto confederation she agreed with Ukraine at the end of May, this aspiring CEE leader has nevertheless managed to organize a sort of coalition around herself.
Much of this impasse was caused by Germany using Poland as its puppet in that former Soviet Republic until Warsaw finally figured out the game being played against it.
She skillfully manipulated perceptions about the conflict to expose German values as hypocritical, which weakened her rival’s soft power and thus strengthened her own in contrast.
Moreover, Morawiecki repeated his country’s distorted stance on Germany’s previous energy cooperation with Russia in his latest interview to falsely portray it as “causing tremendous damage to Europe.”
These combined factors resulted in the Polish prime minister bragging to his interlocutor about the Visegrad-based regional coalition that he has assembled with Bulgaria and Romania.
Although the Baltic states are not mentioned, they are also part of this emerging center of influence.
As for Hungary, however, she is at odds with Poland’s divergent approaches to Russia.
However, there is no doubt that Poland is on the rise as a European regional power, which it is taking full advantage of to attack German prestige on all fronts.
The latest move is her demand for reparations, for which Morawiecki said she will seek Israel’s support.
He also promised, “We will go around the world to present the report, which takes into account human and material losses and cultural assets.”
In other words, he is turning this into a global campaign against German soft power being waged from a compelling moral angle to deal a death blow to Berlin’s image.
However, observers should not forget that geopolitical motives lie behind these demands.
Poland’s efforts to reverse one of the final outcomes of World War II are aimed at opening a Pandora’s Box along its eastern borders to cause trouble with Russia’s ally Belarus while accelerating its de facto confederation with Ukraine.
Moreover, they may also lead to duplicate claims by Warsaw’s CEE “new partners”, all with the aim of creating a critical mass of anti-German sentiment to challenge Berlin at the EU-level. of.
Overall, the importance of Morawiecki’s recent interview with Der Spiegel lies in the heavily implied intent he conveyed in that flagship publication about Poland’s plans to comprehensively challenge Germany for leadership of CEE and the EU as a whole.
This historic European mistake has once again returned to the attention of observers as it became impossible to deny after the harsh condemnation of Germany by the Polish leader.
It remains unlikely that this rivalry will heat up again, though that doesn’t mean it can’t still destabilize Europe on its way.
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