Week 8 of Sunday’s NFL coverage concludes with the night game between the Green Bay Packers and the Buffalo Bills (-11.5, 47.5).
The Packers have struggled to a 3-4 start, while the Bills are moving to 5-1. Aaron Rodgers certainly isn’t used to being this bad, so what can we expect betting-wise on Sunday night?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks AND Erin Dolanfantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody AND Andre SnellingsESPN Stats and Info Seth WalderESPN analyst Jason Fitz and foreign footballers Aaron honey offer their best games for the match.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit loser for the first time in his 234-game career. He is 5-1 ATS as a six-plus point ‘dog. Are you taking the 11.5 with the struggling Packers or putting it with the Super Bowl favorite Bills?
Schatz: I really like the bills this year, but this is a really big line. I’ve seen it anywhere from 10.5 to 11.5 and I think anything over 10, you get the Packers and the points. Here’s the thing: the Packers offense isn’t really bad this year. It’s just not what it was when Rodgers won the last two MVP awards. But Green Bay is 10th in offensive DVOA this season. Buffalo should win this game, but I doubt Rodgers will go even if the Packers go down early, and there’s a solid chance for a back-to-back with an 11.5-point line.
Moody: The Bills offense has been a con. Buffalo leads the league with 440.8 yards per game and ranks second with 29.3 points per game. The Packers have been burned in the vertical passing game by opponents, and Allen is a legitimate MVP candidate. Meanwhile, Rodgers is out of sync with his receivers and is dealing with an injured finger. Football Outsiders ranks the Bills defense first in DVOA. Additionally, Buffalo allows just 281.5 total yards per game, the fewest in the league. The Bills are 10-1-2 against the spread against a team with a losing record and 8-2-2 in their last 12 games. Buffalo is my pick to cover the spread.
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Josh Allen (+125) is the favorite to win the MVP. Aaron Rodgers won the last two MVPs. Rodgers’ passing yardage proposal is 243.5 and Allen’s is 275.5. Which one are you getting?
Snellings: I’ll go Allen over 275.5 yards. Allen’s offense is so strong this season that it’s basically inconsistent. He has thrown for more than 275.5 yards in five of six games this season. Walking away, in prime time, facing one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, I expect Allen to have another MVP-level performance under the lights.
What else are you playing (player propositions/markets) in this match?
Schatz: I’ll take Rodgers over 1.5 touches (-101) based on the idea that the Bills will go forward and the Packers will have to chase them and throw the ball a lot. The best tailgate cover would be the one Rodgers also puts on this prop.
