Considering international media publications that Paraguay will be the only country in the region that will experience a decline this year, local economists and experts emphasize that the analysis of the economy in 2022 has already been done.
The discussion is no longer focused on this year, which will stagnate or even decline, but on the development of 2023.
They mention that Paraguay will undoubtedly have the economy with the highest economic growth in South America in the coming year.
Economist Carlos Fernández Valdovinos, former head of the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP), argued that there is no longer any discussion of whether the economy will grow by 0.2% or contract by 0.5% this year, because it is the same thing.
The point is that the economy will stagnate this year.
“Now, at the level of every economy, there are global and internal factors that mark the dynamics. In this case, 100% of the stagnation of Paraguay’s economy is due to what happened in agriculture,” he said.
A few days ago, experts told us that the forecasts are optimistic for 2023, but everything has already been said this year.
However, they clarify that they are still waiting for international risks. ECLAC predicted that Paraguay would contract by 0.3%, being the only economy with a negative scenario in the region.
According to the analysis of Itaú bank, the domestic economy will stagnate at the level of 0.5%, while the official projection of the CCP is maintained in a positive scenario of 0.2%. The BCP will fit next Friday.
In this context, Fernandez Valdovinos told La Nación that as something happens for a climate factor, which by definition is temporary, he personally no longer focuses on 2022, since it has essentially passed now, but on 2023.
“Following the perspective, looking at the rainfall, if there is no excess or immediate stop, a good agricultural year is predicted, which will be more than reversible what was the scenario of this year.
“Instead of falling 0.5%, which is what Basanomics estimates, the economy will grow easily between 8% and 9% in 2023,” he said.
He emphasized that in one year an economy can grow a lot, for example Argentina, which after the pandemic grew 11%.
“Here, sustainable growth is essential to improve people’s quality of life. Looking at Paraguay’s average over the past 20 years, the local economy is far from the shame of the region; on the contrary, it is the one that grew the most in the region during this period,” he said.
He emphasized again that the prospects, looking from his point of view, for 2023 are good for Paraguay. Unlike what is predicted for the region.
“In that sense, I already want to see the title of the international media next year because, by far, we will be the ones who will grow the most next year,” he said.
Valdovinos even took over the 2023 economy, in the agricultural field, where if it’s another bad year, instead of producing 10 million tons of soybeans, it will only do 8 million, which is 20% less than usual, you already have 100 % more than soybean production for this year.
“In this sense, there is no way we can’t have an increase over 4% or 6%”, he specified.
He criticizes the local economy as the only one that will decrease in the region in 2022.
The Russian news agency Sputnik published an article dedicated to Paraguay’s economy, in which it is negatively emphasized that our country will be the only one to decrease in South America, exceeding even the estimated economic contraction.
In the article entitled “Paraguay’s economy, an unfair exception in South America in 2022”, they detail how our country’s economy is joined only by Haiti in a list of nations with a negative gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 .
International media echoed the analysis released by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which reported that Paraguay will experience a contraction of 0.3% by the end of this year.
“The size of the drop exceeds even the values predicted in August, which predicted a drop of 0.2%,” the article details.
They add that Paraguay’s economy is positioned on the edge of Venezuela, the country with the most positive projections within South America and which predicts a growth of 12% in 2022.
“The only one in South America that has fallen. Paraguay is accompanied only by Haiti in the list of countries with negative GDP in 2022”, say international media, according to data published by ECLAC, a commission that predicted an overall growth of 3.2% for all of Latin America and the Caribbean.
With information from The Nation
