For the past 15 months I have been sharing my sports betting tips and games on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am extremely grateful for the platform that Pickswise has allowed me now. I update my record on my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide assistance via direct message.
Read below to see the picks I’m looking at in Monday’s MLB draft.
Read our MLB picks for all of Monday’s games
Texas Rangers First 5 Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (Game 1) (-120) (0.5 U)
Odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication. Playable down to -130.
Trevor Rogers is someone I’ve picked up this season as his location issues have caused problems with the lefty. The former first-round pick usually sees his exit depending on how successful he is in finding his trade. His changeup has gone from his best pitch in his best 2021 season to an area of concern this season. When you look at the heat map from those seasons on that pitch, it’s clear that command isn’t in his 2021 form, and opponents have a lower strikeout rate on that pitch as a result. He is also allowing a .251 xBA in his changeup this season compared to his .213 mark last year. Not only is the changeup not as effective, but his fastball is taking most of the punishment. Hitters are sitting on his fastballs and absolutely crushing them. His 4-seam fastball this season has a .295 xBA and .524 xSLG while throwing that pitch 52.3% of the time.
Rogers has made 21 starts this season while allowing 2 or more runs in the first 5 innings 15 times. He has looked better since returning from injury, but still allowed 3 runs in the first 5 innings of his last start. Overall this season he ranks just 16th in xERA, 17th in xBA and 21st in xSLG while 29th in BB%. His 4.08 points per plate appearance can only help those who see more balls and become more familiar with him at the plate. Even worse for Rogers have been his struggles at home. In 46.2 IP in Miami this year he has a 6.36 ERA with a .301 OBA and a 1.59 WHIP.
Texas has scored 2 or more runs in the first 5 innings in 17 of its last 24 games against a left-handed starter. In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching, Texas has a wRC+ of 139. They rank 5th in wOBA and OPS over that span, while 8th in ISO and 5th in SLG. I think this number is soft and could make it a full game depending on the lineups.
Check out today’s best YRFI/NRFI bets – we went 2-0 yesterday!
Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Betting AND MLB parlays as well as ours Best MLB Bets by the experts.
