Mexico City, Mexico – The Sinaloa Cartel, one of the largest drug trafficking organizations in the Western Hemisphere, is in a phase of violent transition. As a new generation of capos vie to control the Cartel, its home state of Sinaloa, Mexico is engulfed in a fierce war that threatens to spread across the country.
Sinaloa Cartel co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada was arrested on July 25 in El Paso, Texas along with Joaquín Guzmán López, the son of his former associate, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, who is serving a sentence of lifetime in the United States. the states. The 76-year-old king was allegedly tricked into boarding a plane to the US.
The arrest of El Mayo would create an opportunity for El Chapo’s other sons, known as “Los Chapitos,” to consolidate control. Infighting broke out between different factions, which has so far resulted in 70 killings and 52 disappearances during the month of September.
“This suggests that the ceasefire between the two factions of the Sinaloa cartel is ending,” said David Saucedo, a security analyst. Aztec reports.
“Both have men, guns, ammunition, funded campaigns, governors and mayors acting in their favor, as well as policemen and members of the military. Both factions have the capital and resources to engage in an endless civil war,” he said.
Not a Cartel, a Federation
The key to the Sinaloa cartel’s strength is also its greatest weakness, as its non-pyramidal power structure has left the cartel vulnerable to violent power grabs among its various clans and associates.
Experts have called the Sinaloa Cartel the “Federation” as its structure consists of different organizations that work together and share the market, each with their own territories and armies; this has enabled it to expand its power and eliminate its competitors.
For a long time, the Federation ran the market through the leadership of Zambada and Guzmán Loera, the two maintaining a relatively friendly relationship.
With the arrest and extradition to the US of El Chapo in 2017, the organization began to change its power dynamics.
“El Chapo provided a balancing leadership within the Sinaloa cartel. Without him, the Chapitos, with their inexperience and desire to conquer the world – typical of youth – made a series of decisions that gradually distanced them from Mayo Zambada, who is more of an old school narco,” explained Saucedo.
According to a report by the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), there are currently four main leaders who control the Sinaloa cartel: El Mayo Zambada, Aureliano “El Guano” Guzman-Loera (Chapo’s brother), Rafael Caro Quintero and Los Chapitos.
However, with Caro Quintero currently in Mexican custody since his arrest in 2022 and El Guano a weak force within the Federation, the Cartel’s strength remains divided between Zambada’s loyalists and Chapo’s heirs.
“What we have are two different mafias operating under the banner of the Sinaloa cartel, but they have generational differences in direction, perspective and objectives. They also have various political connections and military patronage rings. And, of course, each group occupies separate territories.
While the two factions share territory in northwestern Mexico in Baja California, Sonora, Sinaloa and Durango, organized crime watchers such as Lantia Intelligence have detailed how the influence of the two factions varies.
According to maps distributed to X by Lantia Intelligence director Eduardo Guerrero, Zambada’s control extends to more states than Chapitos, including outside the northwest in Zacatecas, Jalisco, Querétaro, Guanajuato and Michoacán.
Chapitos, on the other hand, have expanded their operations beyond central Mexico and even into the southeast, but in fewer states, in Estado de México, Ciudad de México, Morelos and Quintana Roo.
For Saucedo, the territorial advantage and experience held by the Zambada faction does not mean a loss for the Chapitos, especially if they can broker an alliance with old rivals such as the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).
“This does not mean that Chapitos will be an easy target for Mayo Zambada; on the contrary, it is reasonable to assume that if the Jalisco Cartel intervenes in this internal fracture of the Sinaloa cartel, it would work in favor of Chapitos,” Saucedo said.
Meanwhile in the USA
Just two weeks after his apparent surrender to US authorities, Zambada made a shocking revelation when he said El Chapo’s 38-year-old son, Joaquín Gúzman López, had kidnapped him and put him on a private plane to hand him over . the US government.
Some speculate that Gúzman López had arranged the capture of his father’s longtime partner by US security agencies in exchange for a better deal with prosecutors. However, in doing so, his brethren south of the border would be forced to unleash bloodshed in their own state.
“The Chapitos are a more violent faction and are in a rush to make more money, expand drug trafficking routes and confront the authorities,” Saucedo said.
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has condemned the US government for brokering a deal with the Chapitos, blaming them in part for causing the wave of violence currently sweeping Sinaloa.
According to Saucedo, the criticism of the Mexican president is not completely unjustified. However, Mexico’s lack of concrete action to take down the Sinaloa cartel, which the US has pointed to as the main driver of fentanyl consumption in their country, may have prompted US agencies to operate without Mexico’s knowledge. .
“I understand the Americans, without excusing them, that they felt the need to tighten the screws because the Mexican government had resisted carrying out any operations against the Sinaloa cartel. I am clear about this too. So both governments have some truth and guilt,” he said.
The Mexican government has insisted that the US has made a deal with the Chapitos and made El Chapo a protected witness along with his younger brother Ovidio Gúzman Loera, who was extradited to the US in January 2023.
However, the US ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, has denied these accusations. Meanwhile, El Chapo and El Mayo have pleaded not guilty to all charges.
Outside of diplomatic friction, the two remaining Chapitos, Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar continue their violent siege in Sinaloa, which could potentially expand to the entire country.
“There may be an increase in violence related to murders in other regions of the country where there are Chapitos and Mayo cells,” Saucedo said.
