The first Red Extreme heat warning issued.

Extreme heat is expected to affect much of England early next week, with temperatures in the 30s and possibly even 40s possible.

A national severe weather warning for extreme red heat will cover Monday and Tuesday (18^th and the 19th^th July) for parts of central, northern, eastern and southeastern England. An amber warning for extreme heat has been in place for most of England and Wales for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday (17^th – 19^thJuly) since the beginning of this week. Today the amber areas are also expanding to cover Cornwall, west Wales and parts of southern Scotland.

The Met Office’s Chief Meteorologist, Paul Gundersen, said: “Extreme, possibly record temperatures are likely early next week, quite widely in the red warning area on Monday, and focused a bit more east and north on Tuesday. There is currently a 50% chance we will see temperatures above 40°C and an 80% chance we will see a new maximum temperature reached.

“Nights are also likely to be unusually warm, especially in urban areas. This is likely to lead to far-reaching impacts on people and infrastructure. Therefore, it is important for people to plan for the heat and consider changing their routines. This level of heat can have adverse health effects.”

The increase in the red warning level is in parallel with an increase in the current heat health warning to level 4 for England by the UK Health Safety Agency.

High pressure near the southern half of Great Britain, which has been responsible for this week’s warm weather, continues to dominate bringing mostly dry and clear weather for most. However, over the weekend, a developing southerly flow will allow the very high temperatures currently developing over the continent to begin to spread northwards into the UK. Further north, eastern areas of Scotland could see temperatures in the 20s in some places, well above their average for the time of year.

Will we have record heat?

This is the first time we have forecast 40°C in the UK. The current UK record high temperature is 38.7°C, which was achieved at Cambridge Botanic Gardens on 25 July 2019.

Weather forecasting models are run many times to help us determine the likelihood of a particular event and to estimate the uncertainty that is always present in weather forecasting to some extent. Some models are now producing a 50% chance of highs above 40°C in isolated parts of the UK for early next week. Mid and upper 30s Celsius will be seen more widely with an 80% chance of breaking the current record.

What happens after Tuesday

By the middle of next week temperatures are expected to start to return to normal for the time of year as cooler air pushes across the country from the west.

You can find the latest forecasts on our website by following usI tweetand Facebook, as well as in our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App Store and for Android from the Google Play store. Keep track of current weather warnings on the weather warning page.

Is it because of climate change?

“We hoped we wouldn’t get to this situation, but for the first time ever we are forecasting more than 40°C in the UK. Met Office climate attribution scientist Dr Nikos Christidis said: “In a recent study we found that the likelihood of extremely hot days in the UK has increased and will continue to increase over the course of the century, with more the most extreme temperatures are expected in the south-east of England.

“Climate change has already affected the likelihood of temperature extremes in the UK. The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be 10 times more likely in the current climate than in a natural climate unaffected by human influence. The likelihood of exceeding 40°C anywhere in the UK in any given year has also increased rapidly and, even with current pledges to reduce emissions, such extremes could occur every 15 years in the 2100 climate.

A recent Met Office study found that summers that see days above 40°C anywhere in the UK have a payback time of 100-300 years at the moment, even with current pledges to cut emissions this could be down to 15 years by 2100.

Extreme heat events occur within natural climate changes due to changes in global weather patterns. However, the increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of these events during the last decades is clearly related to the observed warming of the planet and can be attributed to human activity.

The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be 10 times more likely in the current climate than in a natural climate unaffected by human influence. The chance of exceeding 40°C anywhere in the UK in any given year has also increased rapidly

While a 1°C increase in background temperature may not seem significant, the resulting increase in the severity of extreme heat events is already evident in the observed data. This has far-reaching and significant implications.

Advice

A UK Health Safety Agency level 4 health alert has been issued for Monday and Tuesday. This is the alert level used when a heat wave is so severe and/or prolonged that its effects extend beyond the health and social care system. At this level, the disease can occur among fit and healthy persons, and not only in high-risk groups.

Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA, said: “Heat health alerts have now been issued across much of the country, with temperatures set to remain consistently high throughout the weekend and into of next week. week.

“It’s important to keep yourself hydrated and find shade where possible when UV rays are strongest, between 11am and 3pm.

“If you have vulnerable family, friends and neighbors, make sure they are aware of how they can protect themselves from the warm weather.”

Peter Jenkins, director of campaigns, Water UK said: “Water companies are seeing significant demand during this unseasonably hot weather. We can all help make sure there’s enough to go around by being aware of how much water we use and making sure we stay hydrated and safe.

“By making small changes indoors or in the garden, you can have a big impact on our water consumption. Our water saving campaign has a wealth of useful tips showing the simple things we can all do to save this precious resource so it remains available now and in the future.”

Mel Clarke, Customer Service Director for Operations at National Highways, said: “It’s always important to plan ahead for your journey and this advice is no different during periods of hot weather. Our advice is that everyone should check their vehicles, such as tyres, coolant and oil levels, before setting off.”

Learn more about hot weather driving with National Highways.

Government advice is that 999 services should only be used in emergencies; seek advice from 111 if you need non-urgent health advice.

The main ways to stay safe when the heat comes are:

• Look out for those who may struggle to keep themselves cool and hydrated. Older people, those with underlying illnesses and those living alone are particularly at risk.
• If you live alone, ask a relative or friend to call to check that you are not struggling during periods of extreme heat.
• Stay cool indoors: Close curtains in sun-facing rooms to keep indoor spaces cooler, and remember that it can be cooler outside than inside.
• If you go outside, use cold spaces carefully.
• Drink plenty of fluids and avoid excess alcohol.
• Never leave anyone in a locked, parked vehicle, especially infants, small children or pets.
• Try to stay out of the sun between 11am and 3pm, when UV rays are strongest.
• Walk in the shade, apply sunscreen and wear a wide-brimmed hat if you must go out in the heat.
• Avoid physical exertion in the hottest parts of the day.
• Be sure to take water with you if you are traveling.
• Check the latest weather forecasts and temperature warnings – you can find them on TV, radio, mobile app or website.
• During warm weather, swimming can bring much-welcome relief. If you are going to enter open water to cool off, take care and follow local safety advice.