São Paulo, Brazil – The return of Donald Trump to the White House was not the scenario that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had hoped for. On the eve of the US elections, Lula expressed his preference for the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, in an interview with French broadcaster TF1.
“As a lover of democracy, which I believe is the most sacred tool that humanity has created to govern itself, I am naturally rooting for Kamala Harris to win the election,” the Brazilian president declared.
However, the result was different. Trump emerged victorious and, on January 20, 2025, will lead the world’s most powerful nation again, four years after leaving office surrounded by criticism, including his response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the January 6, 2021 attacks by supporters of his. at the US Capitol.
In Brazil, he will face a different government than the ones he experienced in his first term, which were more sympathetic to his right-wing, nationalist style of politics.
In Trump’s first term, he dealt with conservative leaders Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro.
(photo: Beto Barata/President of Brazil)
Relations with Temer were polite, but limited to engagement. In September 2017, shortly before the UN General Assembly, Trump hosted a dinner for Latin American leaders in New York, with Temer in attendance – one of their few interactions.
However, with Bolsonaro, Trump developed a friendship. In March 2019, Bolsonaro paid an official visit to the White House. A year later, they met again at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, where Trump described Bolsonaro as “a great friend” and said: “It’s a great honor to have the president of Brazil with us. He’s an incredible man, doing a great job. Our relationship has never been closer.”
Even outside the office, their contact continued, with an apparent reunion in March 2023 at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, DC
Bolsonaro left office, of course, as did Trump. Defeated in the election and with his supporters entering the government headquarters to protest the election result. Both he and Trump have subsequently faced multiple criminal investigations.
(photo: Alan Santos/President of Brazil)
Far from his buddy-buddy relationship with Bolsonaro, Trump’s relationship with Lula is expected to be strained, largely due to their ideological differences. Despite this, Brazil remains a strong trading partner for the US. In 2023, bilateral trade between the nations reached $75 billion.
Lula’s initial response to Trump’s election showed an openness to dialogue. In a post on X, he congratulated him on his victory and return to the American presidency, emphasizing that democracy reflects the will of the people and wished success to the next administration.
Read more: How Latin American leaders are reacting to Donald Trump’s victory
In an interview with Brazil reportsLeandro Loureiro, professor of International Relations at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said that the relationship between Lula and Trump should be characterized by objectivity, giving priority to issues of common interest to both countries.
“Lula is likely to avoid direct confrontations and prioritize cooperative agreements on common issues. Conversely, Trump’s approach to Lula may also be results-oriented, seeking favorable deals. Both leaders are likely to put economic interests above political and ideological differences. Environmental issues can emerge as the main source of tension,” Loureiro explained.
Dawisson Belém Lopes, a professor of International Politics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais, put it bluntly Brazil reports that Lula and Trump have very different personalities, which could be an obstacle to building bridges.
“They defend a series of points of view, visions that are diametrically opposed, starting with the reading that each has of multilateralism, international institutions, international law, the use of force, the issue of Palestine and, I think, above all. , the status of democracy. I don’t see any clear areas of convergence today. It will have to be skillfully constructed by the diplomatic corps of both countries.”
Professor Als said bilateral relations between Brazil and the US have flourished with Lula and President Joe Biden at the helm. The two leaders forged a cooperative agenda that includes strengthening democratic institutions, protecting the environment, fighting misinformation and workers’ rights — a partnership that, according to Lopes, “strongly tied Lula to Biden.”
Fernando Brancoli, a professor of International Security and Geopolitics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said Brazil reports that Lula has expressed the intention to maintain a “civilized relationship” with Trump, underlining the importance of dialogue and mutual cooperation. Despite their ideological divisions, a pragmatic approach focused on economic and commercial interests is expected, Loureiro suggested.
Experts also highlighted how Trump might respond to China’s growing influence in Latin America. Loureiro explained that China’s increased presence in the region is an issue close to the US’s heart. According to him, “Trump will probably try to take a control stance, encouraging bilateral agreements that reduce the dependence of Latin American countries on China, reinforcing the narrative that these ties with Beijing pose risks to security and sovereignty.”
Brancoli also believes that Donald Trump will have to use bilateral agreements to try to curb China’s presence in the region.
“During his first term, Trump adopted a confrontational stance toward China, implementing tariffs and trade restrictions. It is likely that in his second term he will seek to contain Chinese influence in the region, perhaps by offering investment alternatives and strengthening trade ties with Latin American countries,” he said.
Belém Lopes noted that Latin America’s growing ties to China stem from the region’s historical marginalization in US foreign policy. For him, “the US has often overlooked Latin America, with issues only appearing during presidential campaigns in a criminalized lens, focusing on illegal immigration and drug trafficking.”
Meanwhile, China has strengthened its position as the region’s top trading partner, signing its first free trade agreement with Chile in 2006, followed by similar pacts with Peru, Nicaragua and Ecuador. Uruguay and Panama have also started talks on their own agreements.
(photo: Ricardo Stuckert/President of Brazil)
On November 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping was in Peru, where he inaugurated the latest piece of infrastructure built by his country in the region, the Chancay megaport, a $1.3 billion project.
The terminal, located north of Lima, is expected to become a transportation hub that opens a new connection route between South America and Asia, speeding up trade across the Pacific Ocean.
“This kind of mobilization was necessary for the United States to wake up from its deep slumber and start trying to contain the Chinese. A very clear example of this was 5G telephony, the way in which the United States tried in every way to convince Brazil not to accept the presence of Huawei, the Chinese company, on Brazilian territory, which is a matter of with medium and long. – long-term strategy,” said Lopes.
Loureiro warned that Trump’s protectionist stance could further strengthen China’s presence in the region, potentially benefiting agri-exporting countries while providing new market opportunities for Beijing.
“Regarding the promise to extend tariffs between 10% and 20% on almost all imports, this may have some consequences for the agro-exporting countries of the region, but it may also open up more space for the Chinese market,” he said. Loureiro.
As China continues to deepen its ties across Latin America during Trump’s absence from office, it remains to be seen how he will counterbalance this influence upon his return.
